Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Nutrient Continues to Decline, Fuels Slightly Higher

August 5, 2013 03:58 AM
 

Decliners tallied $36.25 to gains' $10.44. The largest increase was in UAN32% which surged $9.65 in regional averages, led by a $44.55 bounce in Missouri and a $27.58 increase in Minnesota. We issued an alert last week to hook into some 32%, and that window has now closed. However, Nebraska 32% fell a good ten bucks over the week and Indiana and Illinois gave a little ground as well.7 21 13 024

Fuels firmed slightly and we believe the floor is in place for farm diesel and issued an aggressive purchase alert last week. Year-over data, declining distillate stocks and WTI crude prices couple with industry experience to suggest, while still above year-ago, farm diesel is headed higher.

Last year's pop in farm diesel pricing was from $3.17 to $3.31 and the following week firmed another eleven cents to $3.42. That was all in the last week of July and first 2 weeks of August 2012. The next chance we found to get into some farm diesel last year was after harvest in December at $3.57.

Futures --

December corn futures opened Monday at $4.58 and continues to spin its wheels. Rain is spreading across some dry areas of the Midwest even as we speak, and, doggone it, the weather over the weekend was dang near perfect -- nice for parades like the one Saturday in my hometown (happy Watermelon Day America!), but December corn isn't going to find any strength under these conditions.

September 2013 natural gas futures opened today at $3.32 marking a 28 cent slide from the same time last week. Natgas is currently at a low as investors are favoring short positions in WTI and U.S. crude producers are running at the upper end of capacity to capture the current $106/barrel price tag.

-----------------------------

Regionally --

Anhydrous softened $4.82 to $782.09; UAN28 falls $9.86 week-over to $377.36; UAN32 firms $9.65 to $421.68; Urea falls $4.64 to $521.05.

DAP $14.57 lower to $598.76; MAP firms 79 cents to $631.05. Potash falls $2.36 to $555.87.

Farm diesel up slightly again, adding 1/2 cent to $3.38 -- 7 cents above year-ago. LP mostly steady to slightly higher at $1.341 -- 6 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
7/22/13
7/29/13
Current Week
Week-over Change
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$847.97
$786.91
$782.09
-$4.82
$800.45
DAP
$627.42
$613.33
$598.76
-$14.57
$649.92
MAP
$642.51
$630.26
$631.05
+$0.79
$663.50
Potash
$575.97
$558.23
$555.87
-$2.36
$613.58
UAN28
$394.44
$387.22
$377.36
-$9.86
$397.75
UAN32
$435.49
$412.03
$421.68
+$9.65
$430.38
Urea
$547.51
$525.69
$521.05
-$4.64
$659.75
Farm Diesel
$3.359
$3.378
$3.38
+$0.002
$3.31
LP
$1.499
$1.34
$1.341
+$0.001
$1.28
Composite
452.910
435.379
432.512
-2.86
468.88

Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor

 

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