Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Nutrient Ponders Pause, N&P Edge Higher

September 30, 2013 04:57 AM
 

Decliners tallied $45.69 to gains' $36.98 1/4. UAN32% solution led the downward charge with surprising late season declines in farm diesel and another downside gasp from potash.

Anhydrous, DAP and LP led gains as demand has started to pick up for fall applications and growers put early bushels in the bin.

Corn Futures --

December corn futures opened today at $4.52 and despite adding a few pennies in overnight trade, the contract is still aimed squarely at the August 13 low of $4.45. Resistance lies at $4.63 and $4.72. A violation of that level suggests upside potential to $4.93 and beyond that, $5.00.

Early yield numbers out of the eastern and southern Belt will not help futures build strength as these numbers are expected to be the highest we see throughout harvest.

-----------------------------

Regionally --

Anhydrous climbs $12.46 to $709.03; UAN28 firms $8.24 week-over to $314.19; UAN32 falls $13.38 to $353.23; Urea falls $12.56 to $461.57.

DAP $16.20 higher to $560.73; MAP $7.07 lower to $566.47. Potash down $12.66 to $492.90.

Farm diesel down 2 1/2 cents to $3.543 -- 14 3/4 cents below year-ago. LP 8 1/4 cents higher at $1.539 -- 21 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
9/16/13
9/23/13
Week-over Change
Current Week
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$694.05
$696.57
+$12.46
$709.03
$838.17
DAP
$530.41
$544.53
+16.20
$560.73
$634.00
MAP
$571.97
$573.54
-$7.07
$566.47
$655.75
Potash
$510.99
$505.56
-$12.66
$492.90
$601.67
UAN28
$328.66
$305.95
+$8.24
$314.19
$376.08
UAN32
$357.95
$366.61
-$13.38
$353.23
$424.8
Urea
$477.05
$474.13
-$12.56
$461.57
$597.00
Farm Diesel
$3.461
$3.568
-$0.02 1/2
$3.543
$3.69
LP
$1.432
$1.457
+$0.08 1/4
$1.539
$1.35
Composite
386.223
385.771
-0.97
384.802
459.167

 

Anhydrous Action --

The table below outlines anhydrous action for the report week which shows prices waffling around gains and declines in the $0-$5.00 range. However, fresh supplies in Iowa and Wisconsin drove prices lower in those states by close to $50.00/ton.

State NH3
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
Iowa
$719.30
-$46.04
$673.26
Illinois
$704.09
-$1.76
$702.33
Indiana
$767.58
+$4.13
$771.71
Wisconsin
$745.00
-$49.05
$695.95
Minnesota
$671.32
-$6.91
$664.41
South Dakota
$695.00
unchanged
$695.00
North Dakota
$691.52
-$10.56
$680.96
Nebraska
$608.28
+$0.28
$608.00
Missouri
$673.26
+$2.37
$675.63
Kansas
$615.93
+$2.78
$613.15
Ohio
$800.00
+$115.00
$915.00
Michigan
$716.01
+$95.99
$812.00

 

Meanwhile, Michigan and Ohio both moved strongly higher with Michigan adding $95.99 and Ohio adding $115.00/ton. These prices may fade into next week and we recommend to wait it out for another week if you have yet to book anhydrous in Ohio or Michigan. NH3 has shown a tendency to vary wildly within individual states from week to week as the market tries to unravel the uncertainty. We have seen anhydrous pricing do this for the past three weeks. The big jumps in Ohio and Michigan may be eliminated next week by corrective declines. Stay tuned to your Monitor for all the details.

The general trend for anhydrous is clear, however, and prices appear to be set to at least level off. The possibility remains amid lagging corn prices for more downside action for nutrient in general once the fall application season is booked. We look for a pause at current levels through harvest. From there, demand will tell us more about where prices are headed for spring.

Last year's pricing was well above today's peg with NH3 now $129.14 below year-ago; UAN28% $61.89 below year-ago; UAN32% $71.57 below year-ago and urea currently $135.43 below the same time last year.


 

 

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