Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Prices Linger at Seasonal Low

November 18, 2013 03:58 AM
 

Declines tallied $3.46 to gains' $8.48. This is the first time in several weeks that gains captured the upper hand, and while the last few weeks were punctuated by strong movements in particular states, this week, prices have not moved much from the week before signaling the long tail on seasonal declines is leveling off. As time forces buyers into the marketplace, prices are holding very firm across the Corn Belt.ZCZ1411 18

Corn Futures --

Today, the Dec14 corn futures contract (ZCZ14) opened at 10 1/2 cents lower than last week's report at $4.59. Based on that, expected new-crop revenue lies at $694.40/acre at 160 bu.

The ZCZ/NH3 spread narrowed 15.12 points on the week and currently lies at -23.34 with Dec 14 futures on top. The Dec 14 corn futures contract took a dive on Friday and continues to pressure nutrient pricing. The correlation between corn futures and nutrient pricing will have nutrient marking time at-or-near current levels until futures clear the way to the upside.

Given the strong falloff on Dec 14 pricing on Friday, we are hesitant to make a move here beyond hand-to mouth purchases for direct application. We will look to increase hedge coverage for spring nitrogen as news form China and Ukraine speak of natural gas shortages, leading to production cutbacks. This could inflate spring pricing, but we have a lot of apples to pick up between now and then. For now, let's keep an eye on corn, and hold tight for spring fertilizer.

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Regionally --DSC 0013 (2)

Pricing had moved off seasonal lows by this time last year and the year-over price comparison shows a widening between today's price and that of last season. Last year's pricing was well above today's peg with NH3 now $195.19 below year-ago; DAP $116.47 below; MAP $127.12 below year ago; Potash $122.88 below; UAN28% $63.47 below year-ago; UAN32% $81.04 below and urea currently $132.46 below the same time last year.

Wholesale ammonia moved sideways last week at most locations while urea moved decidedly higher. See more on this in tomorrow's N Files.

Anhydrous softens $1.68 to $671.06; UAN28 down 13 cents week-over to $315.86; UAN32 firms $6.16 to $347.63; Urea 64 cents higher to $450.21.

DAP 11 cents lower to $530.71; MAP $1.62 higher to $561.98. Potash falls $1.52 to $481.29.

Farm diesel down 2 cents to $3.402 -- 18 cents below year-ago. LP firmed 6 cents to $1.70 -- 27 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
11/4/13
11/11/13
Week-over Change
Current Week
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$680.65
$672.74
-$1.68
$671.06
$866.25
DAP
$524.02
$530.82
-$0.11
$530.71
$657.83
MAP
$559.20
$560.36
+$1.62
$561.98
$669.25
Potash
$483.18
$482.47
-$1.52
$481.29
$604.17
UAN28
$322.34
$315.99
-$0.13
$315.86
$379.33
UAN32
$341.92
$341.47
+$6.16
$347.63
$428.67
Urea
$452.43
$449.57
+$0.64
$450.21
$582.67
Farm Diesel
$3.424
$3.422
-$0.02
$3.402
$3.583
LP
$1.583
$1.641
+$0.06
$1.70
$1.429
Composite
374.309
373.167
+0.60
373.763
465.91

 

Anhydrous Action --

Five of our twelve states surveyed moved lower on anhydrous during the report week with three states unchanged, and four moving higher. Declines were most notable in the Dakotas where South Dakota fell $11.69 and North Dakota down $15.19. Most moves, however, hovered around unchanged with Indiana leading increases, adding $6.63/short ton on the week.

State NH3
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
Iowa
$662.40
-$1.94
$660.46
Illinois
$690.15
-$0.79
$689.36
Indiana
$705.96
+$6.63
$712.59
Wisconsin
$675.00
unchanged
$675.00
Minnesota
$665.59
+$0.67
$666.26
South Dakota
$693.51
-$11.69
$681.82
North Dakota
$660.32
-$15.19
$645.13
Nebraska
$608.05
+$2.21
$610.26
Missouri
$637.81
+$0.47
$638.28
Kansas
$603.22
-$0.52
$602.70
Ohio
$695.00
unchanged
$695.00
Michigan
$775.91
unchanged
$775.91

 


 

 

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