Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Seasonal Demand Holds Nutrient In Place

November 11, 2013 05:03 AM
 

Declines tallied $18.30 to gains' $6.85. The last few weeks have really shown the power of a buyers' market as prices continue to fish for demand. As has been characteristic of this season, strong movements have held sway over regional averages while most states have stabilized, and moved little on the week. As an example, Indiana anhydrous fell 4 dollars while Michigan anhydrous fell $56.91 during the same period. Same deal in DAP where Wisconsin fell 20 dollars, but Michigan DAP moved $75.00 higher per short ton.DSC 0009

Farm diesel continues lower on a friendly path and LP ticks a good nickel higher. Snow is falling across the Dakotas, into Minnesota and Wisconsin, and outside my window. Harvest delays at this point could put fertilizer applications way behind schedule. If this blanket of snow sticks, the application window will shrink even more.

Corn Futures --

Today, the Dec14 corn futures contract (ZCZ14) opened at 3 1/2 cents higher than last week's report $4.69 1/2. Based on that, expected new-crop revenue lies at $710.40/acre at 160 bu.

The ZCZ/NH3 spread widened 13.51 points on the week and currently lies at -38.46 with Dec14 futures on top. Declines in corn futures thinned the NH3/ZCZ14 gap last week, but the Dec14 contract bolted nine cents higher on Friday. If nutrient prices are going to capture the upswing in corn futures, that upswing would need to appear sustainable to growers and restore confidence in new-crop returns.

Trends suggest fertilizer will level off at current levels, but the downside has been surprisingly receptive to fertilizer pricing, to the benefit of growers, and may offer another week of scattered declines ahead. Industry watchers are beginning to murmur about higher prices by spring. We believe fertilizer prices will have to rebound and have recommended hedges in some states on urea and P&K. Our advice for this week, however, is to hold tight unless you are ready to apply today with the noteable exception of Michigan NH3 which is a 'buy' at current prices.

Of Note --

Anhydrous in Michigan fell $56.91/short ton over the week to sport a long awaited seven handle while adding $74.22 to the statewide DAP price. Wisconsin anhydrous fell $20.95 into our go-zone and DAP fell another $23.97 in the Badger state to $519.89.

-----------------------------

Regionally --

Anhydrous softens $7.91 to $672.74; UAN28 down $6.35 week-over to $315.99; UAN32 falls 45 cents to $341.47; Urea $2.86 lower to $449.57.

DAP $6.80 higher to $530.82; MAP $1.16 higher to $560.36. Potash falls 71 cents to $482.47.

Farm diesel down 2 1/2 cents to $3.422 -- 34 1/2 cents below year-ago. LP firmed 5 3/4 cents to $1.641 -- 27 1/2 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
10/28/13
11/4/13
Week-over Change
Current Week
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$675.47
$680.65
+$3.40
$672.74
$861.33
DAP
$526.73
$524.02
-$2.71
$530.82
$646.83
MAP
$556.70
$559.20
+$2.50
$560.36
$665.33
Potash
$486.15
$483.18
-$2.97
$482.47
$602.91
UAN28
$326.62
$322.34
-$4.28
$315.99
$378.16
UAN32
$340.23
$341.92
+$1.69
$341.47
$439.00
Urea
$462.22
$452.43
-$9.79
$449.57
$580.75
Farm Diesel
$3.449
$3.424
-$0.02 1/2
$3.422
$3.766
LP
$1.575
$1.583
+3/4
$1.641
$1.366
Composite
375.462
374.309
-1.153
373.167
464.38

 

Last year's pricing was well above today's peg with NH3 now $188.59 below year-ago; DAP $116.47 below; MAP $104.97 below year ago; Potash $120.44 below; UAN28% $62.17 below year-ago; UAN32% $97.53 below and urea currently $131.18 below the same time last year.

Anhydrous Action --

Eight of our twelve states surveyed moved lower on anhydrous during the report week with just Ohio unchanged, and three moving higher. The biggest moves were in Wisconsin and Michigan with both moving lower. All other movement was confined to a range of 10 dollars or less per short ton.

State NH3
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
Iowa
$670.48
-$8.08
$662.40
Illinois
$680.57
+$9.58
$690.15
Indiana
$709.21
-$3.25
$705.96
Wisconsin
$695.95
-$20.95
$675.00
Minnesota
$659.07
+$6.52
$665.59
South Dakota
$691.76
+$1.75
$693.51
North Dakota
$662.55
-$2.23
$660.32
Nebraska
$616.92
-$8.87
$608.05
Missouri
$644.33
-$6.52
$637.81
Kansas
$609.97
-$6.75
$603.22
Ohio
$695.00
unchanged
$695.00
Michigan
$832.10
-$56.19
$775.91

 


 Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor

 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close