Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Solutions Correct, Nutrient Lowers Landing Gear

September 23, 2013 05:14 AM
 

Decliners tallied $25.22 to gains' $27.00 1/4. This is the first time in weeks that gains have posted the upper hand.leveloffgoat

Upward movement nearly across the board suggests the floor is in place and despite strong declines in North Dakota and Illinois, anhydrous pricing moved mostly higher in the regional average along with phosphate, fuels and 32% solution.

Downward movement from potash was expected as global prices seek demand. 28% moved lower as a correction to last week's imbalance with 32% with UAN28 now at 54 cents per pound N with 32% at 56 cents. The pricing margins between NH3, Urea, UAN28 and now UAN32 have all fallen within expected spacing with anhydrous at 42 cents, urea at 52, UAN28 at 54 and UAN32 at 56 cents per pound of N. Solutions may each move two cents higher, but as these four pillar nitrogen products align with each other, the implication is that nitrogen has lowered its landing gear.

Anhydrous Action --

The table below outlines anhydrous action for the report week which shows Illinois and North Dakota finally made their downside break with North Dakota NH3 falling $24.90/ton and Illinois falling $30.94.

Trends suggest the downside is exhausted for anhydrous ammonia in Iowa, Minnesota, Kansas and Michigan, all of which reversed during the report week and moved higher -- Iowa by nearly 50 bucks. Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio are all unchanged. Of the three, Ohio has the most room to fall, but Indiana is still high against the other 'I' states.

This week's movement suggests states with a $600 handle will stabilize at current levels with plenty of upside potential. States outside the six hundreds are there because either they have yet to catch up with the downtrend or because they have already bounced.

State NH3
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
Iowa
$670.78
+$48.52
$719.30
Illinois
$735.03
-$30.94
$704.09
Indiana
$767.58
unchanged
$767.58
Wisconsin
$745.00
unchanged
$745.00
Minnesota
$682.04
-$10.72
$671.32
South Dakota
$700.00
-$5.00
$695.00
North Dakota
$716.42
-$24.90
$691.52
Nebraska
$611.38
-$3.10
$608.28
Missouri
$675.66
-$2.40
$673.26
Kansas
$612.91
+$3.02
$615.93
Ohio
$800.00
unchanged
$800.00
Michigan
$695.00
+21.01
$716.01

 

sadcorn4Corn Futures --

December corn futures opened today at $4.50 and is aimed squarely at the August 13 low of $4.45. Early planted corn and eastern belt crops look real good according to crop scouts and the yield numbers will come in from those locales first. We expect those yield numbers to be the strongest of the season and as harvest continues, look for the average national corn yield to decline steadily.

This will continue to weigh on corn futures as the supply side is healthy enough to suppress deferred pricing. But if sour yields take over the headlines, corn futures could finally rally. Given fertilizer's relationship to corn, we expect a rally in nutrient at that point, but we do not see this coming up until some 'worse-than-expected' news comes out of the western and central Belt.

-----------------------------

Regionally --

Anhydrous climbs $2.52 to $696.57; UAN28 falls $22.71 week-over to $305.95; UAN32 firms $8.66 to $366.61; Urea falls $2.92 to $474.13.

DAP $14.12 higher to $544.53; MAP also firms $1.57 to $573.54. Potash down $5.43 to $505.56.

Farm diesel up 10 3/4 cents to $3.568 -- 12 1/4 cents below year-ago. LP 2 1/2 cents higher at $1.457 -- 12 3/4 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
9/9/13
9/16/13
Week-over Change
Current Week
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$716.02
$694.05
+$2.52
$696.57
$838.75
DAP
$551.29
$530.41
+$14.12
$544.53
$638.67
MAP
$584.30
$571.97
+$1.57
$573.54
$653.67
Potash
$511.88
$510.99
-$5.43
$505.56
$601.58
UAN28
$336.98
$328.66
-$22.71
$305.95
$374.83
UAN32
$375.43
$357.95
+$8.66
$366.61
$445.60
Urea
$497.56
$477.05
-$2.92
$474.13
$603.08
Farm Diesel
$3.43
$3.461
+$0.107
$3.568
$3.69
LP
$1.435
$1.432
+$0.127
$1.457
$1.33
Composite
397.596
386.223
-0.45
385.771
462.355

Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor

 

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