Inputs Monitor Regional Index: UAN, Urea, Phosphate Edge Higher

January 27, 2014 03:42 AM

Declines tallied $2.59 to gains' $25.62 in the regional averages. Big movers this week are UAN32%, urea and DAP which are all higher on the week with NH3 and potash slipping lower. Propane prices are reported to be nearing five dollars in some locations. Our survey has LP up a dime on the week, but that may not reflect the reality of the situation. We've got some phone calls to make on this and will adjust our numbers when fresh data is available. We hope to have something more definitive by the end of the day, and I expect an update of spot LP pricing will reflect prices in the $3-$4.00 range.

Meanwhile, Phosphate, UAN32 and urea continue to edge higher and we expect upward movement here, possibly through spring. We have advised you have 50% of spring/summer needs booked on these and we will look for an opportunity later this week to extend coverage.

Corn Futures --

December 14 corn futures closed Friday at $4.49 1/2 -- that's 1/2 cent higher than the previous Friday's close, putting expected new-crop revenue at $679.20. With anhydrous priced at $650.00, the ZCZ/NH3 spread widened 1.28 points and now lies at -29.20.

A narrowing of the spread between 1 acre of new-crop expected revenue and 1 ton of anhydrous is the result of flat movement in both. ZCZ14 is up 1/2 cent since our last report and NH3 is down just 48 cents. However, UAN, urea and phosphate continue to respond to supply features, and have shown a weaker correlation to corn futures than have NH3 and potash.

In other words, as we expect corn futures to range sideways, the influence of expected new-crop revenue based on the Dec. '14 contract has not been strong enough to limit increases, particularly for UAN and urea.


Regionally --

Anhydrous softens $0.48 to $650.00; UAN28 six cents lower week-over to $326.20; UAN32 firms $8.74 to $359.47; Urea $7.30 higher to $472.41.

DAP $6.40 higher to $514.83; MAP $3.08 higher to $533.22. Potash falls $2.05 to $461.72.

Farm diesel unchanged at $3.40 1/2 -- now just 2 1/2 cents below year-ago. LP firmed 9 1/2 cents to $2.15 -- now 72 cents above year-ago.

Week-over Change
Current Week
Farm Diesel
$3.40 1/2
$3.40 1/2
$2.05 1/2
+ 9 1/2 cents






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