Inputs Monitor Regional Market Report -- 12/31/2012

December 31, 2012 04:09 AM

Inputs Monitor Regional Index Composite 2.704 points lower week-over -- a 0.58% decline to 460.15. All prices moved lower during the report week suggesting inputs pricing across the board is looking for a seasonal low. Trends suggest there may still be room to the downside for inputs pricing, and we expect that support to be established around mid-January.

Anhydrous has spent the last month testing resistance after falling to $861.33 during the last week of October. Currently NH3 sliding $0.59 lower to $881.91, a 0.06% decline during the report week. UAN28 falls another $3.17 to $374.08; UAN32 also lower dropping $4.45 to end the report week 1.04% lower at $419.66; Urea also sharply lower again this week, shedding $4.08 to $565.50 -- a 0.71% decline.

DAP still seeking support, falling an even $2.00 -- a 0.30% decline to end at $648.33; MAP also sharply lower falling $4.09 to $656.16 -- a 0.61% decline.

Potash moves another $3.73 lower to $590.75 on strong Canadian stocks on hand.

Farm diesel $0.061 lower to $3.502 -- still at a suggested seasonal low, but a blanket of snow will keep much of the Midwest at more seasonal temperatures and increased distillate consumption for home heat could put pressure on farm diesel pricing in the coming weeks.

LP slightly lower week-over at $1.441.

*A secondary analysis follows. These figures exclude statistical highs and lows...

With high/low figures excluded (HLEx), Inputs Monitor Regional Index Composite 2.39 lower week-over to 460.02-- a 0.44% dip to the low.

Anhydrous falls $0.50 to $881.20; UAN28 down $3.80 to $375.00 -- a full percentage point decline; UAN32 $5.02 lower to $419.14; Urea $4.30 lower to $565.20.

DAP shows the only increase in either index, adding $0.46 to $647.66 -- a 0.07% increase; MAP slides $4.00 lower to $655.90.

Potash dips another $4.30 to $591.20 -- a 0.72% decline.

Farm diesel dips below $3.50 -- lower $0.065 on the week to $3.496, and LP slightly lower to $1.402.

Differential between the two analyses (standard figures v. HLEx) stands at 0.128 -- a 0.027% margin with the standard analysis on top at 460.151.



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