Is 90 Million the Magic Number?

March 17, 2017 01:38 PM

Producers and grain marketers alike are anxiously awaiting USDA’s Planting Intentions report on March 31. Will soybeans reach the rumored 90-million-acre mark? Maybe. 

“I think it’s a long shot,” says Chip Flory, host of “Market Rally Radio,” part of the Farm Journal Media family. “We’re working closer to that 87 million to 87.5 million range.” 

To get to 90 million acres of soybeans, farmers would have to grow the grain on pretty marginal acres, Flory says. It isn’t out of the question.

“Look at all of the hard red winter wheat acres we lost. Those guys grew soybeans in 2016 like they never thought they could, and now they think: ‘Hey, we’ve got the program in place. We’re going to do it again,’” he says. At the same time, “2016 might have been a once-in-a-lifetime chance for Kansas farmers to see Iowa-like soybean yields.”

The 90-million-acre figure is a doable one because of the profitability of soybeans, acknowledges Mark Gold of Top Third Ag Marketing. 

“I think we’re going to see a lot of corn acres that don’t necessarily want to go [into soybeans], but banks may make them,” Gold says. “Bankers we work with are telling their farmers that they have to take a hard look at why they’re growing corn this year.”

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Spell Check

Saint Ansgar, IA
3/20/2017 08:26 AM

  I'm not waiting for the USDA report. It seems like every time a report comes out the markets go down some more. Does the tax payer really need to pay for all these reports. I think NOT!!!!!!!!! Do away with them. All the acres will get planted to some kind of crop.

Western, NE
3/20/2017 09:57 AM

  Garbage in, garbage out! NASS provides a wealth of information for the farmer and others too. But, a lot of the time, farmers have such a chip on their shoulder when it comes time to fill out the survey that they blow it off or lie. With today's farm bill, that screws us all over. I don't care if you screw yourself--that's up to you, but why screw everyone else? If you look at 2018's budget that Trump proposed, he guts NASS. NASS has been reduced in size over the past 8 years. If you think reports are the problem now, you wait until next year if the House goes along with anything that Trump wants. Trump will drive this country into anarchy!

Dave Burt
Flora, IL
3/17/2017 09:14 PM

  The trade will be reeling in shock when the final soybean numbers come rolling in. 90+


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