As cooler temperatures made their debut in the Corn Belt late last week, farmers and traders alike started wondering about weather for the remainder of the growing season. How soon could frost fears become part of the conversation?
“I don’t think that there’s any question that frost is going to be into the conversation here very soon,” Chip Flory told AgriTalk host Mike Adams on Friday. “The reason frost is going to be part of the conversation is because of the cool temperatures starting [Thursday] and going through the middle of the month.”
Cooler temperatures will slow down the development of the corn crop, but dry temperatures speed development. Flory isn’t exactly sure what cooler days will mean for soybeans, but one thing is for sure: it won’t speed up pod development.
Long range weather forecasters, using computer models as a guide, are calling for even cooler temperatures for much of the western Corn Belt heading into September.
“If that trough that some weather guys say is expected to come in in the first week of September arrives,” Flory explained. “It could bring some temperatures into key production areas that could hurt us.”
Mike Tannura of T-storm Weather doesn’t think an early frost is something farmers should spend much time worrying about.
“I don’t think that’s going to happen,” he told Chip Flory on Market Rally. “If you remember one of the biggest frosts we’ve ever had was in September 1995. August of 95 was the hottest on record.”
Despite the unseasonably cool weather this first week of August for much of the Corn Belt, Tannura said that doesn’t necessarily mean it will freeze earlier than usual.
“There’s just not a lot of data that say that if you have a cold snap in August that it means anything for September,” he said. “You need to look at weather events as independent events.”
Tannura said it’s more likely to get a significant freeze event when weather patterns are out of whack.
“Even though it’s out of whack right now, it’s going to warm up and things look a little more normal going forward,” he said.