Is This a 2014-Type Rally?

October 28, 2016 03:15 PM

The harvest rally is catching both farmers and analysts off guard, with some wondering if it’s a repeat of 2014. That’s when soybeans rallied $1.30 between harvest and December 31 and corn shot up 70 cents. Matt Bennett of Bennett Consulting told U.S. Farm Report host Tyne Morgan that we shouldn’t buy into that assumption yet.

“We’ve had a really good rally at this point, so I want a look at what kind of production you have, times what the prices are,” said Bennett. “The bottom line is, as long as we're making money, it keeps us in the game.”

Bennett says many producers have been worried about profitability since the market peaked this summer. He suggests looking at this rally as a gift, taking advantage of today’s market prices, even looking at putting a floor in for untouched cash bushels and new crop.  

“I think we can lock in reasonable probability if we protect prices at these levels,” said Bennett.

Don Roose of U.S. Commodities agrees, calling the soybean market rally an overachiever.

“We've rallied over 80 cents on soybeans since the beginning of October,” said Roose. “I think these are opportunities for producers to catch up on sales on old crop beans, take a look a new crop soybeans and also on corn, make sure you get some insurance on out to July; take advantage of the carry.”

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