Is China Looking To Cancel Soybean Purchases?

October 20, 2011 01:22 AM
 

What Traders are Talking About:

* China canceling bean buys? Rumors swirled through the market Wednesday that China had cancelled or was in the process of canceling some purchases of soybeans. China is facing some economic headwinds and more declines in economic growth are likely. But by all accounts, Chinese feed consumption is on the rise, which means the country's demand for soybeans will increase. While unconfirmed, the cancellation talk spooked traders and helped pressure soybean futures. China is known as shrewd traders, but continued strength in Gulf soybean basis sure doesn't suggest there have been any cancellations or that exporters expect any washouts. Supplies available to exporters and end-users remain tight as farmers have been slow sellers of new-crop soybeans, awaiting a rally in futures.

The long and short of it: As fundamental focus shifts to demand, Chinese activity in the export market will continue to command a lot of attention.

* Attention remains on euro-zone's every move. Based on overnight price action, investors are slightly more upbeat toward the euro-zone situation than yesterday. But attitudes have been changing like the wind,. so they are likely to shift again. The latest from the euro-zone is a document containing guidelines on the bloc's rescue fund. A proposal that the European Financial Stability Facility could buy bonds on the secondary market, if the euro-zone country has sustainable debt, is soothing to investors' nerves. Meanwhile, More highly unpopular austerity measures are likely to become law in Greece later today after a parliamentary vote. The measures are required required by the European Union and International Monetary Fund to get the next batch of emergency funding.

The long and short of it: Euro-zone leaders are taking steps to solve the region's financial mess, but the situation is far from solved. Expect attitudes to keep shifting.

* Some harvest delays in the eastern Belt. Rains through Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and far eastern Illinois are slowing harvest efforts in those areas. But combines continue to roll to the west and hedge-related pressure is still a market issue. While harvest is getting to the point where seasonal pressure typically starts to ease, farmer sales have been slow, which could change the seasonal pattern. There's more uncertainty over how long the seasonal selling will last and how heavy it will be than in a "normal" year.

The long and short of it: Seasonal pressure should ease soon, but the dynamics are different than the "typical" year given slow farmer sales.

 

Follow me on Twitter: @BGrete


Need a speaker for a seminar or special event? Contact me: bgrete@profarmer.com

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