Jerry Gulke: Market Responds Positively to USDA Report

02:08PM Sep 13, 2019
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The markets ended the week on a positive note. December corn was 13¢ for the week ending Sept. 12, while November soybeans was up 41¢ and December wheat was nearly 20¢.
( AgWeb )

The markets ended the week on a positive note. December corn was 13¢ for the week ending Sept. 12, while November soybeans was up 41¢ and December wheat was nearly 20¢.

“Over half of the gain in corn, soybeans and wheat were due to this week’s USDA reports,” says Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group.

As of Sept. 12, USDA pegs corn production at 13.8 billion bushels. Yields are expected to average 168.2 bu. per acre, down 1.3 bu. from the previous forecast. 

Soybean production is forecast at 3.63 billion bushels. Yields are expected to average 47.9 bu. per acre, down 0.6 bushel from the previous forecast. 

Listen to Gulke discuss the Sept. 12 USDA reports.

The week’s positive market prices were key technical moves, Gulke says.

“Corn and soybeans put in significant technical reversals, meaning the price was below the previous day and well above the previous day’s high,” he says. “In the case of soybeans, it made a weekly reversal, which means it completely took out the previous week’s low and close above the previous’ week’s high.”

These friendly technical moves should have the chart watchers optimistic going forward, Gulke says.

With this month’s USDA report behind us, Gulke says the market’s focus will shift to trade and weather.

“The tariff talks continue,” Gulke says. “The unconfirmed talk is that private Chinese buyers will be allowed to purchase 5 million metric tons of soybeans tariff-free. We have indications they have already started purchasing those beans.”

The remainder of this month and early next month’s weather will be critical for this year’s late-planted crops. 

“The weather looks warm for the next couple weeks, but several of the forecasters say after this warm weather, it will significantly cool off,” Gulke says. “A normal frost date is still in the realm of possibility, and that would still impact to some extent those crops planted in June. Last week’s crop ratings had 8% of the soybeans yet to set pods."

Positive Price Trend

Gulke says this week’s market move set an optimistic tone. That’s especially true since this time of year when traditionally the markets post early-harvest lows. 

“It was a moral victory to have grains move like they did this week and hold those gains going into the weekend,” he says.

In Gulke’s next Top Producer column, he’ll compare how 2019 resembles 2009. In 2009, the crop size kept shrinking as harvest progressed. 

“It took the whole harvest season to reveal the crop wasn’t as good as expectations,” Gulke says. “This year is shaping up similar”.

 

Read More
Jerry Gulke: Unraveling the Supply and Demand Picture

Jerry Gulke: We’ve Come Full Circle

Jerry Gulke: Volatility = Profit Enhancement Opportunities

Find more written and audio commentary from Gulke at AgWeb.com/Gulke