Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 10

April 10, 2013 02:12 AM
 

Wednesday, April 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Traders are awaiting the Wednesday afternoon release of the
latest minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market
Committee (FOMC) meeting from March. Given recent weaker
U.S. economic data—specifically last Friday’s employment
report—many reckon the FOMC minutes will favor the hard
asset bulls and hint at no change in the Fed’s easy money
policies. However, others say the FOMC may hint that it will
begin winding down the quantitative easing that has been in
place for several years, which would be bearish for the raw
commodity sector, including gold and silver. Market prices
could react significantly in the immediate aftermath of the
Wednesday afternoon FOMC minutes’ release. Overnight news
saw China produce a trade deficit of $880 million in March,
while a $14 billion surplus was expected. The market place
took that big miss in stride, as many commented China’s
statistical reporting accuracy still leaves much to be
desired. There have been no major developments in the
European Union sovereign debt situation the past week or so.
There is a key Italian debt offering occurring later
Wednesday. Spanish and Italian government bond yields have
backed off recently, which is an indication the EU debt
crisis has not escalated in the view of the market place.
The Euro currency has rallied recently against many
currencies, which is also an indication the EU debt crisis
has once again stabilized. In other news, Goldman Sachs has
lowered its price forecast for gold this year. The firm now
says its three-month forecast for the price of gold is
$1,530 from $1,615 previously. Goldman’s six-month forecast
is $1,490.00 and its 12-month outlook is $1,390.00. Goldman
also said it sees gold at present as a selling opportunity.
One should not read too much into these price forecasts from
such firms. Most of their forecasts are behind the curve and
off the mark. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday
includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the
weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the FOMC
minutes.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering
near this week’s five-year high. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high
of 1,569.00 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,555.80 and then at
this week’s low of 1,543.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the April
high of 2,823.00 and then at 2,835.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,794.75 and then at
Tuesday’s low of 2,773.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hovering near
this week’s all-time high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 14,600 and then at Tuesday’s low
of 14,530. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at last week’s high of 14,700 and then at 14,750.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on more
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 147 2/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 147
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
146 17/32 and then at 146 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on more
profit taking. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132.27.5 and then at Tuesday’s high of 133.00.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
132.18.5 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. The greenback bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage but are fading on profit taking.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Tuesday’s high of 82.820 and then at 83.000.
Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 82.310
and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In May Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
Tuesday’s high of $94.48 and then at $95.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $93.50 and then at
$93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight as traders await Wednesday
morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Look for
more active grain futures trading in the aftermath of the
late-morning USDA data. Wet, cool weather in the U.S.
Midwest is starting to support the bullish camp in corn.
But the bears can still argue that the soil moisture
profile in the Corn Belt continues to improve. Freezing
weather in the U.S. Plains states this week is also
supporting buying interest in wheat futures early this week
due to worries of frost or freeze damage to the wheat crop.
 

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