Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 11

April 11, 2013 01:22 AM
 

Thursday, April 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
President Charles Plosser said in a speech in Tokyo the Fed
should start winding down its bond-buying program
(quantitative easing) and be completely done with it by the
end of the year. Plosser is not a voting member of the
Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC minutes released
Wednesday showed Fed officials are debating on when to shut
the bond-buying program down. This situation as rattled
commodity market bulls. The QE of the past few years had
helped drive many commodity market prices to record highs.
The Japanese stock market hit a four-year high overnight in
the wake of the recent aggressive monetary easing by the
Bank of Japan. The U.S. dollar hit a four-year high versus
the yen overnight as the BOJ works to devalue its currency.
The European Central Bank has also hinted it may further
lower its interest rates in an effort to devalue its
currency. Many wonder if the U.S. Federal Reserve will back
off on monetary easing when other major central banks of the
world are stepping harder on their easy-money accelerators
to reinvigorate their economies. U.S. economic data due for
release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report,
import and export price indexes, and ICSC chain store sales
trends.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
hit another five-year high overnight. Futures prices are
near their all-time record high, too. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
all-time high of 1,586.50 and then at 1,600.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,575.00 and then at
1,568.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on
profit taking after hitting a six-month high Wednesday.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s
high of 2,857.50 and then at 2,875.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 2,823.00 and then at 2,800.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
this week’s all-time high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 14,700 and then at Wednesday’s
low of 14,660. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Wednesday’s high of 14,760 and then at 14,800.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are
fading and need to show fresh power soon. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 146 9/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 146 16/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of 145
26/32 and then at 145 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but are
fading a bit. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132.18.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 132.27.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
132.10.5 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early U.S. trading
and hit a fresh three-week low. The greenback bulls are
fading and need to show fresh power soon. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 82.500 and
then at the overnight high of 82.680. Shorter-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 82.140 and then at 82.000.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls are
having a good week. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. In May Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of
$94.82 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $94.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of
$93.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Traders have quickly moved
past Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
Wet, cold weather in the U.S. Midwest is supporting the
bullish camp in corn, due to ideas of planting delays, even
though soil moisture profiles in the Corn Belt continue to
improve. Soybeans are seeing a bit of pressure on notions
some intended corn acres could switch to soybeans due to
the wet weather. Meantime, freezing weather in the U.S.
Plains states this week is supporting buying interest in
wheat futures due to worries of frost or freeze damage to
the wheat crop. Traders will closely examine Thursday
morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
 

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