Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 15

April 15, 2013 01:57 AM
 

Monday, April 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Gold and silver futures markets are leading a downdraft in
the raw commodity sector as the new week begins. Both gold
and silver markets have crashed the past two trading
sessions. Gold has lost more than $150.00 an ounce and
silver has shed more than $4.00 an ounce since last
Thursday’s closing levels in New York. Gold is now at its
lowest price level in more than two years. Nymex crude oil
futures prices have dropped over $4.00 a barrel in the same
time period. There has been no single fundamental catalyst
for the panic selling in the gold and silver markets. But
the fear in the commodity trading world is pervasive Monday
morning, which has most commodity futures markets and world
stock markets under selling pressure. "When in doubt, get
out" is the mantra of raw commodity market bulls Monday.
Worries about demand for physical gold from China and India
are getting some of the blame for the mass exodus of longs
out of the gold and silver markets. Overnight, China
reported its economy grew slower than expected during the
first quarter, at 7.7% versus the expected rate of 8% annual
growth. There are also worries about troubled European Union
countries selling their gold reserves to help finance their
financial bailouts from the European Central Bank and the
International Monetary Fund. Cyprus government officials
last week said selling part of that financially imperiled
country’s gold reserves was on the table. Last week’s
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting that signaled Fed members are
divided on when to end the Fed’s quantitative easing of
monetary policy also spooked the raw commodity market bulls.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the
Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury international
capital data, and the NAHB housing market index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower early today on profit
taking after hitting an all-time high last Thursday. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,582.80 and then at last week’s high
of 1,592.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at 1,561.20 and then at 1,550.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today on profit
taking after hitting a six-month high last Thursday. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s
high of 2,858.50 and then at 2,875.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Friday’s low of 2,828.25 and then at
2,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking
after hitting another all-time high last Thursday. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
14,700 and then at 14,660. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 14,800 and
then at last week’s high of 14,818. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today, on some
safe-haven demand due to the uncertainty regarding the
downdraft in commodity market prices. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 148 2/32 and then
at the April high of 148 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
147 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 147 5/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on some
flight-to-quality buying. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133.06.0 and then at the April high of 133.11.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
132.28.0 and then at 132.24.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S.
trading. Surprisingly, the greenback is not seeing much
safe-haven demand Monday, despite all the uncertainty in the
market place. The index has turned choppy to lower recently
as the bulls have faded a bit. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
82.500 and then at 82.680. Shorter-term support is seen at
last week’s low of 82.140 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today and hit a
four-month low overnight. Bulls are fading badly. In May
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $88.05
and then at $87.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight. The panic selling in gold,
silver, copper and crude oil has spilled over into selling
pressure in the grains. Beneficial moisture that has fallen
over the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt states the past few
weeks is also a bearish underlying factor for today,
despite the notion that corn planting delays are likely
this spring.
 

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