Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 16

April 16, 2013 02:13 AM
 

Tuesday, April 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place had much going on Monday, and then the
afternoon terror attack in Boston jolted already shaky
trader and investor attitudes. Emotions are a little less
frayed on Tuesday morning, as gold has rebound well off its
overnight two-plus-year low of $1,321.50 an ounce in June
futures. However, there remains keener anxiety in the market
place early this week, with much for traders and investor to
ponder as the week plays out. This week’s price action in
many markets will likely be extra important for price
direction in the coming weeks. How markets close on Friday
(near their weekly highs or weekly lows) could be a
harbinger of price action in the particular market for the
coming weeks, or a bit longer. Reports overnight said
physical demand for gold all across Asia has increased
sharply following the recent plunge in gold prices. Major
gold consumers China and India saw their citizens snapping
up gold jewelry and bars as prices reached two-year lows.
Some retail stores in Asia ran out of gold products for
sale. The big jump in demand for physical gold helped stop
the bleeding in the gold market. June gold hit its low of
$1321.50 in the aftermath of the apparent terrorist attack
in Boston and as the CME Group raised margins on trading of
gold futures. In other news overnight, German economic
expectations declined sharply in April as the closely
watched ZEW index fell for the first time in five months—to
36.3 in April from 48.5 in March. The April figure was well
below market expectations of a reading of 43.0. Also, Euro
zone inflation fell to 1.7% on an annual basis in March,
from 1.8% in February. The Euro zone inflation rate is the
lowest since August of 2010. U.S. economic data due for
release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the consumer price
index, real earnings, new residential construction,
industrial production and capacity utilization, and the IMF
world economic outlook.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today on a
corrective bounce from selling pressure Monday. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,568.00 and then at Monday’s high of 1,582.80. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,539.00
and then at the April low of 1,533.30. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today on a
corrective bounce from Monday’s losses. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 2,817.00 and then at
2,823.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,785.25 and then at Monday’s low of 2,771.25. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on a corrective
rebound from Monday’s declines. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 14,550 and then at Monday’s low
of 14,520. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,650 and then at 14,700. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on some
profit taking after hitting a four-month high on Monday.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 148 even and then at the
overnight high of 148 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Monday’s low of 147 5/32 and then at 147 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on some
profit taking after closing at a new contract high close on
Monday. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 133.00.0 and then at the overnight
high of 133.08.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.24.0 and
then at 132.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading.
Surprisingly, the greenback is not seeing much safe-haven
demand early this week, despite all the uncertainty in the
market place. The index has turned choppy to lower recently
as the bulls have faded a bit. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 82.500 and then at the
overnight high of 82.620. Shorter-term support is seen at
last week’s low of 82.140 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today, but well up
from the overnight low of $86.06, which is also a 9.5-month
low. Bears still have downside near-term technical momentum.
In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $88.00 and then at $87.50.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. The panic selling in gold,
silver, copper and crude oil the past two sessions did
spill over into selling pressure in the grains. The grains
will likely continue to look to the "outside markets" for
direction in the near term. However, beneficial moisture
that has fallen over the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt states
the past few weeks is a bearish underlying factor for
grains. The notion that corn planting delays are likely
this spring is somewhat limiting the downside in corn.
Drier weather is in the forecast for next week, and that’s
also a bit bearish for corn.
 

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