Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 17

April 17, 2013 02:18 AM
 

Wednesday, April 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The world market place continues to calm down and focus more
on individual markets’ supply and demand fundamentals,
instead of the world geopolitical scene. European stock
markets were lower Wednesday, on more dour economic news
coming out of the European Union. Asian stock markets were
firmer as focus moved back toward the regional matters in
Asia. On tap in the U.S. Wednesday is the Federal Reserve’s
beige book, which will be closely scrutinized by traders and
investors, given recent machinations by Fed officials
regarding the central bank’s quantitative easing policies
and how long to keep them in place. There were more reports
overnight of strong demand for physical gold coming out of
the Asian region, and especially India. Many market watchers
are commenting this week that the holders of "paper gold"
(ETFs and futures contracts) have been queued up as major
sellers, while the actual holders of physical gold have been
lined up as big buyers on the dip. The World Gold Council
said Wednesday the overall fundamental picture in gold has
not changed, despite the recent downdraft in prices. As a
30-year market reporter, trader and analyst, I have seen
many extreme price moves in many markets. This recent big
sell off in gold is certainly extraordinary. However, nearly
all markets traded have extraordinary moments and extreme
price moves. But when the dust settles those markets return
to normal trading conditions. And the trader/investor
attitudes toward those markets do not change. Such is likely
to be the case in the gold and silver markets. U.S. economic
data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA
mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE energy stocks
report, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower early today as trading has
turned choppy. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,568.30 and then at this week’s high of 1,582.80. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at this week’s low of
1,539.00 and then at the April low of 1,533.30. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today as
trading has turned choppy. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 2,817.00 and then at the
overnight high of 2,830.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Tuesday’s low of 2,785.25 and then at this week’s
low of 2,771.25. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today as trading has
turned choppy this week. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at this week’s low of 14,520 and
then at 14,500. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,605 and then at 14,650. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today. Trading is
choppy this week. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 148 3/32 and then at this week’s high of 148 14/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of 147
13/32 and then at this week’s low of 147 5/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
this week’s high of 133.09.0 and then at the April high of
133.11.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of
132.25.5 and then at 132.20.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early U.S.
trading, on a good bounce from Tuesday’s losses. The index
has turned choppy recently as the bulls have faded a bit.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 82.500 and then at this week’s high of 82.620.
Shorter-term support is seen at 82.000 and then at this
week’s low of 81.780. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears have downside
near-term technical momentum. In May Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $88.00 and then
at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $87.00 and then at this week’s low of $86.06. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Beneficial moisture
that has fallen over the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt states
the past few weeks is a bearish underlying factor for
grains. However, the specter of corn-planting delays likely
this spring is somewhat limiting the downside in corn. The
corn-planting delay issue will likely be a major market
factor when trading gets under way next week. Reports said
cash basis levels for corn and soybeans in the U.S. are
firm due to very limited farmer selling in the cash market.
 

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