Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 18

April 18, 2013 01:55 AM
 

Thursday, April 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Gold and crude oil prices were under strong selling pressure
in Asian trading Thursday, but then posted a solid recovery
during European trading hours. The International Monetary
Fund this week forecast lower world economic growth, in the
latest signal that the major economies of the world continue
to sputter, or only see tepid growth. Low inflation readings
in the major world economies are also a bearish factor for
the beaten-down raw commodity sector. Asian stock markets
were lower overnight amid the sell-off in the raw commodity
sector during Asian trading hours. European stock markets
rose Thursday, boosted by a successful auction of Spanish
government bonds. There is a Group of 20 meeting in
Washington, D.C. that begins Thursday. The market place will
pay close attention to any proclamations regarding foreign
exchange rate, financial and/or economic policies coming out
of the confab. Reports overnight said the big investment
fund BlackRock has done some bargain hunting and purchased
gold this week. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
includes the weekly jobless claims report, leading economic
indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook
survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today as trading
has turned choppy this week. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s
high of 1,568.30 and then at this week’s high of 1,582.80.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at this week’s
low of 1,538.30 and then at the April low of 1,533.30. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today as
trading has turned choppy this week. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 2,800.00 and then at
2,817.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,768.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,758.25.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today as trading has
turned choppy this week. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 14,550 and then at this week’s
low of 14,500. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,650 and then at Wednesday’s high of 14,695.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Trading is
choppy this week. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at 148 even and then at the overnight high of 148 11/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 147 5/32 and
then at 147 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls
still have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of
133.09.0 and then at the April high of 133.11.5. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.25.5 and
then at 132.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading, on a
corrective pullback from Wednesday’s strong gains. The index
has turned choppy recently but the bulls on Wednesday did
regain upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s
high of 82.815 and then at 83.000. Shorter-term support is
seen at 82.500 and then at 82.250. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today after hitting a
fresh 9.5-month low of $85.61 in Asian trading today. Bears
still have downside near-term technical momentum. In May
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.06.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight. Recent moisture in the U.S.
Corn Belt and Plains states is turning from a bearish
underlying factor for grains, to a bullish factor for corn.
The specter of corn-planting delays is now likely this
spring. The corn-planting delay issue will likely be a
major market factor when trading gets under way next week,
if not sooner. Grain traders will continue to look to the
outside markets for direction, especially given the
volatile trading seen in crude oil and gold recently.
 

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