Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 23

April 23, 2013 01:48 AM
 

Tuesday, April 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news there was weak German manufacturing data
released Tuesday that bolsters arguments the European
Central Bank will lower interest rates at next week’s ECB
policy meeting. Markit’s German purchasing managers index
fell to 48.8 in April from 50.6 in March. The German data
pushed the Euro currency to a two-week low. There was also
weaker-than-expected manufacturing data coming out of China
Tuesday. The HSBC purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.5
in April versus 51.6 in March. Asian stock markets dropped
on the China news. The German and China data also added
selling pressure to the raw commodity sector, including the
precious metals markets. U.S. economic data due for release
Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson
Redbook retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home
price index, the ISM Chicago business survey, the ISM
semiannual report on business and the economy, and the
consumer confidence index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at 1,570.00 and then at last week’s high of 1,582.80. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,548.80 and then at Monday’s low of 1,542.80. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s
high of 2,812.50 and then at 2,823.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,785.00 and then at
Monday’s low of 2,770.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,500 and then at
14,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,605 and then at 14,650. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh five-month high overnight. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 149 even and then at the overnight
high of 149 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 148 16/32 and
then at the overnight low of 148 4/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight contract high of 133.15.5 and then at
133.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133.02.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading and
hit a two-week high overnight. The bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
83.180 and then at 83.420. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 82.650 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. A big and bearish pennant
pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. In June Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$89.00 and then at Monday’s high of $89.48. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $88.00 and then at
Monday’s low of $87.69. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. The key "outside markets" are
bearish for the grains early Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar
index is higher and crude oil prices are weaker. Recent
moisture in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states is a
bearish factor for grains, even though it has caused early
corn-planting delays. However, there is drier weather
forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt later this week. The grain
market bears continue to hold the near-term advantage on
the charts.
 

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