Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 24

April 24, 2013 01:50 AM
 

Wednesday, April 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Strong demand for physical gold worldwide, and especially
from Asia, continues to underpin the gold market as
investors do some perceived bargain hunting after the recent
large price decline in the metal. Reports this week have
said there are shortages of gold bars and coins in some
countries, with gold retailers jacking up their charged
premiums over the spot price of gold. There is also talk in
the market place that there is a significant "short squeeze"
occurring in the gold futures market at present. This
phenomenon occurs when a short seller is well "under water"
and is forced to buy back his losing position at a much
higher price, as he’s squeezed out of the market. In
overnight news, German 30-year bund yields fell to a record
low at a government auction Wednesday. The bund fetched an
average yield of 2.16%. This underscores the still-keen
European investor uncertainty regarding the overall
financial and economic health of the European Union. The
German Ifo business confidence index fell to 104.4 in April
from 106.7 in March, suggesting the EU’s largest economy is
struggling. Still, the Euro currency was stronger and
Italian and Spanish bond yields hovered near two-year lows
Wednesday, while European stock markets were higher. This
hints European investors and traders reckon the European
Central Bank will keep its monetary policy very easy for the
foreseeable future. The continued weakness in the Japanese
yen pushed the Nikkei stock index to a four-plus-year high
Wednesday. The Bank of Japan is also on a very aggressive
"easy money" path. U.S. economic data due for release
Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications
survey, the advance report on durable goods, and the weekly
DOE liquid energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,575.00 and then at last week’s high of 1,582.80. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,571.60 and then at 1,560.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Tuesday’s
high of 2,843.50 and then at 2,850.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,819.50 and then at
2,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 14,644 and
then at 14,600. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,700 and then at 14,750. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on profit
taking after hitting a five-month high Tuesday. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 148
3/32 and then at 148 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 147 18/32 and then at this week’s low
of 147 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on profit
taking after hitting a contract high on Tuesday. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.03.5 and
then at 133.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 132.28.0 and then at this week’s low of
132.24.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading and
did hit a three-week high overnight. The bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 83.325 and then at 83.420. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 82.965 and then at this week’s
low of 82.650. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today on short covering.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.
In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $90.00 and then at $90.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $89.00 and then at $88.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. The key "outside
markets" are mildly bullish for the grains early Wednesday,
as the U.S. dollar index is weaker and crude oil prices are
firmer. Recent moisture in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains
states is a bearish factor for grains, even though it has
caused early corn-planting delays. However, there is drier
and warmer weather forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt later
this week. The grain market bears continue to hold the
near-term advantage on the charts.
 

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