Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 25

April 25, 2013 01:42 AM
 

Thursday, April 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Gold is trading sharply higher in early U.S. trading today.
It is my bias that the majority of the raw commodity sector
is now looking to gold for direction. If gold prices have
indeed put in a market bottom, then it’s likely other raw
commodity markets have done the same. The International
Monetary Fund reported overnight that Russia, Turkey and
other Asian nations increased their official gold reserves
in March. The report did not include the timeframe in April
when the big downdraft in prices occurred. The May IMF
report will be very closely scrutinized to see how central
banks responded to the big sell off in gold prices in April.
In other overnight news, Spain’s unemployment rate rose to a
record high of 27.2% in the first quarter. It was also
reported that Spain’s gross domestic product contracted at
an annual rate of 2% in the first quarter. U.S. economic
data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless
claims report and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.-
-Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
last week’s high of 1,582.80 and then at the April high of
1,592.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,571.00 and then at 1,560.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s
high of 2,843.50 and then at 2,850.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,814.00 and then at
2,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s
low of 14,605 and then at 14,550. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at 14,700 and then at
14,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on mild
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at Wednesday’s high of 148 9/32 and then at 148 20/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 147 26/32 and
then at this week’s low of 147 15/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on mild
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.04.5 and then at 133.08.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 132.28.0 and
then at this week’s low of 132.24.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early U.S.
trading, on profit taking. The bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 83.815 and then at the
overnight high of 83.055. Shorter-term support is seen at
82.500 and then at this week’s low of 82.400. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today and hit a
fresh two-week high overnight. Bulls have regained upside
technical momentum following Wednesday’s strong gains. In
June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $92.00 and then at $92.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $91.00 and then at $90.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher overnight on short covering. The key
"outside markets" are mildly bullish for the grains early
Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower and
crude oil prices are slightly higher. Traders will closely
scrutinize Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales
report. Recent moisture in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains
states is a bearish factor for grains, even though it has
caused early corn-planting delays. However, there is drier
and warmer weather forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt later
this week. The grain market bears continue to hold the
overall near-term advantage on the charts.
 

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