Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 26

April 26, 2013 02:01 AM
 

Friday, April 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is awaiting the latest reading on the
growth rate of the U.S. economy, due out Friday morning. The
first-quarter advance gross domestic product estimate is
seen coming in at a 3.2% annual growth rate, which follows a
paltry 0.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year.
The GDP data could be a markets-mover in the immediate
aftermath of its release, if the figure does not meet market
expectations. Traders and investors are already looking
forward to key events in Europe next week. Monday is an
Italian government bond auction, which is expected to be
well-received. Belgium and France also hold government debt
auctions next week. Next Thursday the European Central Bank
holds its monthly meeting and some believe the ECB will
lower its key interest rate by 0.25%, in the wake of weak
European Union economic data released recently. Other U.S.
economic data due for release Friday includes the University
of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on
some mild profit taking after recent gains. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Thursday’s high of 1,588.00 and then at the April high of
1,592.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
Thursday’s low of 1,571.00 and then at 1,560.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Thursday’s high of 2,854.50 and
then at the April high of 2,858.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at Thursday’s low of 2,832.50 and then at 2,825.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,600 and then at
14,550. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,650 and then at Thursday’s high of 14,705.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 148 11/32 and then
at 148 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 148 even and
then at the overnight low of 147 27/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 133.08.0 and then at 133.11.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 133.01.5 and then at
Thursday’s low of 132.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S.
trading, on mild profit taking. The bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 83.000 and then
at this week’s high of 83.325. Shorter-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 82.610 and then at this week’s low
of 82.485. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today on profit taking and
a corrective pullback from the big gains seen Wednesday and
Thursday. Bulls still have upside technical momentum on
their side. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $94.00 and then at $95.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.50
and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. There is
drier and warmer weather forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt in
the coming days, and that is deemed bearish for the grains,
as U.S. corn planting will move into high gear over the
weekend. One market factor that has been seemingly ignored
by the wheat market is the major damage inflicted upon the
hard red winter wheat crop in the U.S. Plains, due to
freezing weather. The grain market bears continue to hold
the overall near-term advantage on the charts.
 

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