Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 30

April 30, 2013 01:38 AM
 

Tuesday, April 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It will be a busy day of U.S. economic data Tuesday. Reports
data due for release include the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales reports, the employment
cost index, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the ISM
Chicago business survey, the consumer confidence index, and
the ISM semiannual report on business and the economy. The
FOMC meeting also begins Tuesday. There was more dour
economic news coming out of the European Union overnight, as
the number of unemployed workers in the bloc rose to a
record high in March. Also, German retail sales fell in
March. Tame EU inflation that fell to its lowest level in
three years was also reported Tuesday. All of the above
augurs for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates
when it holds its monthly meeting on Thursday. A growing
number of market watchers think the ECB will lower interest
rates at Thursday’s gathering. The Federal Reserve on
Wednesday will announce its latest monetary policy actions
in a busy week of world economic data. The monthly U.S. jobs
report is due out Friday morning.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and
are hovering near the recent all-time high. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the April high of 1,592.50 and then at 1,600.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,574.50
and then at 1,560.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today and
are hovering near Monday’s seven-month high. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,865.00 and then at Monday’s high of
2,871.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,850.00 and
then at Monday’s low of 2,827.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s
high of 14,785 and then at the April high of 14,818. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 14,700
and then at 14,650. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 149 even and then at last
week’s high of 149 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 148 14/32 and then at 148 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 133.20.5
and then at 133.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
133.16.0 and then at the overnight low of 133.12.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but have faded and need to show more
power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Monday’s high of 82.520 and then at
82.905. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
82.080 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls still
have upside technical momentum on their side. In June Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
Monday’s high of $94.69 and then at $95.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at
$93.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. Grain
market bulls had a good day on Monday, led by corn with
limit daily gains. There are now early clues that grain
markets have put in seasonal lows. Substantial rains and
cold temperatures are in the forecast for the U.S. Corn
Belt in the coming days. This will continue to severely
limit corn planting progress, and that is bullish for corn.
Meantime, the annual hard red winter wheat tour kicks off
in the U.S. Plains states this week. The HRW crop is in
very bad shape, overall. Soybeans are seeing strong cash
basis levels in the U.S., due to scant farmer selling in
the cash market.
 

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