Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 8

April 8, 2013 01:57 AM
 

Monday, April 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place has gotten a shot of confidence the easy
money policies of the major central banks of the world will
remain in place for quite some time to come, and that is a
bullish underlying factor for hard assets like gold and
silver. The weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report last
Friday, the fresh Bank of Japan monetary stimulus
announcement last week, and the still-very-weak European
Union economic and financial situation all argue for the
Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the European Central
Bank to keep their feet on the easy money accelerator. North
Korea and its nuclear threats toward the U.S. and South
Korea continues to attract some attention of the market
place. However, there is now the feeling among many that the
North Koreans’ trash-talking is old hat and only talk. The
U.S. said last week it is taking North Korea’s threats
seriously and has dispatched military assets to the region
surrounding North Korea. The market place has digesting the
news fairly well. However, that could change very quickly if
the North Korea situation turns from just rhetoric to
military conflict. The wild card in the matter is a new,
young leader of the North Korean regime that is
unpredictable. U.S. economic data due for release Monday
includes the Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing index and the
employment trends index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Friday’s high of 1,554.80 and then at last week’s high of
1,568.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,540.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,533.30. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Friday’s
high of 2,785.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,762.25 and then at
2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,500 and then at
14,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,550 and then at last week’s high of 14,600.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on profit
taking after hitting a four-month high on Friday. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 148 even and then at last week’s high of 148 9/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 147 16/32 and then at 147
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on profit
taking after hitting a contract high on Friday. Bulls still
have good upside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of
133.05.5 and then at Friday’s contract high of 133.11.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
132.29.0 and then at Friday’s low of 132.20.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. The greenback bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage but did fade on Friday. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 82.910 and then at 83.010. Shorter-term
support is seen at 82.500 and then at last week’s low of
82.310. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today on short covering
following strong selling pressure last week. Bears still
have some downside technical momentum. In May Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $94.00
and then at $94.50. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $93.00 and then at the overnight low of $92.71.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher overnight on short covering from recent
strong selling pressure. Wet, cool weather in the U.S.
Midwest is starting to support the bullish camp in corn.
Cold weather in the U.S. Plains states is also supporting
buying interest in wheat futures early this week. Traders
are awaiting Wednesday’s release of the latest monthly USDA
monthly supply and demand report.
 

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