Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 9

April 9, 2013 01:52 AM
 

Tuesday, April 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, it was reported that China’s consumer
price inflation came in lower than expected, at a 2.1%
annual rate in March versus expectations of a 2.4% rise.
This is a bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity
sector. China is the world’s largest consumer of many raw
commodities. The buzz in the market place continues on the
Bank of Japan and its aggressive devaluation of the yen. The
yen hit multi-year lows versus the U.S. dollar and Euro
currencies overnight. There is also talk the European
Central Bank could soon lower its interest rates, in the
race to devalue. Weak U.S. jobs data last week suggests the
U.S. Federal Reserve will not be easing its monetary policy
any time soon. The devaluation of the major currencies is
also a bullish underlying factor for hard assets in the
investment world, including gold and silver. U.S. economic
data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson
Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the NFIB
small business index, and monthly wholesale trade.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last
week’s high of 1,568.00 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,543.50
and then at last week’s low of 1,533.30. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,800.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,823.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,783.00
and then at 2,771.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 14,500 and
then at Monday’s low of 14,435. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at last week’s high of 14,600 and
then at 14,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on more
profit taking after hitting a four-month high on Friday.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 147 even and
then at the overnight high of 147 12/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 146 16/32 and then at 146 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on more
profit taking after hitting a contract high on Friday.
Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 132.29.5 and then at Monday’s high of 133.05.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 132.16.0 and then at 132.08.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The
greenback bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but are fading just a bit on profit taking. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.820 and then at 83.000. Shorter-
term support is seen at 82.500 and then at last week’s low
of 82.310. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today on short
covering following recent strong selling pressure. Bears
still have some downside technical momentum. In May Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$94.00 and then at $94.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $93.00 and then at Monday’s low of
$92.71. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Wet, cool weather in the U.S.
Midwest is starting to support the bullish camp in corn.
But the bears can still argue that the soil moisture
profile in the Corn Belt continues to improve. Cold weather
in the U.S. Plains states is also supporting buying
interest in wheat futures early this week due to worries of
frost or freeze damage to the wheat crop. Traders are
awaiting Wednesday’s release of the latest monthly USDA
monthly supply and demand report. This particular report is
harder for forecasters to peg, regarding stockpiles. Thus,
there could be some higher volatility in the grain markets
in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s report.
 

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