Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 14

April 14, 2014 02:45 AM
 
Monday, April 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It's a "risk-off" day in the market place Monday, as Russia-
Ukraine tensions are back on the front burner. Asian and 
European stock markets were under selling pressure Monday 
and the U.S. stock indexes are seeing follow-through selling 
from last week's losses, in early electronic trading Monday 
morning. Gold and the U.S. dollar are seeing safe-haven 
buying interest Monday, but U.S. Treasuries are not. Crude 
oil prices have also rallied due to the geopolitical 
uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine matter.

During the weekend Ukrainian troops were mobilized to 
counter a surging pro-Russia movement by protesters who have 
tried to occupy some Ukraine cities. Ukraine government 
officials have accused Russia of instigating and even arming 
the protesters. Meantime, Russian troops are still massed on 
the Russia-Ukraine border. The NATO secretary-general last 
week those troops appear ready to move on short notice. This 
situation has flared up and once again has become a 
potential geopolitical flash point. There are also questions 
regarding how the U.S. will react to the latest developments 
in the region. It's very likely this conflict will remain a 
major markets-moving factor for at least the rest of this 
week.

In other news, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi 
said Saturday the recent strength of the Euro currency could 
prompt fresh easing of ECB monetary policy, in order to keep 
deflationary pressures on the EU economy in check. This news 
dropped the Euro and supported the U.S. dollar index.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes retail 
sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

Wyckoff's Daily Risk Rating: 7.5 (The Russia-Ukraine 
tensions are now on the front burner of the market place.)

(Wyckoff's Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge 
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. 
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader 
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral. 

--Jim
        
U.S. STOCK INDEXES 

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in 
early U.S. trading, after hitting a two-month low early on. 
Bears still have downside technical momentum. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early 
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. 
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term 
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish 
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes 
in at 1,825.00 and then at Friday's high of 1,832.00. Buy 
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside 
support for active traders today is located at the overnight 
low of 1,803.25 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely 
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market 
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today 
after hitting a nine-week low early on. Bears have downside 
near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving 
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day 
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, 
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. 
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,450.00 and 
then at 3,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those 
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the 
overnight low of 3,429.75 and then at 3,420.00. Sell stops 
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading 
today and are hovering near a two-month low. Buy stops 
likely reside just above technical resistance 16,000 and 
then at Friday's high of 16,075. Sell stops likely reside 
just below technical support at Friday's low of 15,940 and 
then at 15,900. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral 
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day 
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day 
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow 
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day 
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today on 
mild profit taking that saw prices hit a contract high 
overnight. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term 
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is 
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving 
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to 
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 
contract high of 135 2/32 and then at 135 16/32. Buy stops 
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term 
technical support lies at 134 even and then at 133 16/32. 
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's 
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on mild 
profit taking after hitting a six-week high overnight. 
Notes bulls have gained good upside technical momentum 
recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are 
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. 
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early 
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high 
of 125.02.5 and then at the March high of 125.06.5. Buy 
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term 
technical support lies at 124.15.0 and then at 124.08.0. 
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's 
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading on 
short covering after hitting a four-week low last week. The 
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. 
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early 
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical 
resistance at the overnight high of 79.840 and then at 
80.000. Shorter-term support is seen at overnight low of 
79.620 and then at 79.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market 
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. 
trading after hitting a contract high overnight. Bulls still 
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and 
still have some upside momentum. In May Nymex crude, look 
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $104.00 and 
then at the contract high of $104.55. Look for sell stops 
just below technical support at the overnight low of $103.39 
and then at $103.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. Weather in the 
central U.S. has been cold and wet the past few days, 
including some snow on the ground as U.S. corn planters wait 
to roll. This is bullish for corn and has spilled over into 
buying interest in the other markets. The cold U.S. weather 
is also prompting some concern about freezing temperatures 
occurring in some wheat regions early this week. Also, the 
heightened Russia-Ukraine tensions are bullish for the 
grains, and especially wheat. Technically, wheat bears still 
have some downside momentum to suggest that market has 
topped out, at least for the near term. Corn and soybean 
bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.

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