Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 17

April 17, 2014 02:11 AM
 

Thursday, April 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is not simmering down. A foreign
ministers meeting including officials from the U.S., Russia,
Ukraine and the European Union got under way in Geneva,
Switzerland Thursday to try to de-escalate the situation.
The U.S. is leading an effort to slap further economic and
diplomatic sanctions on Russia. As the three-day Easter
holiday weekend approaches, it would not be surprising to
see the safe-haven assets, including gold, see buying
interest surface and to see the market place move into a
"risk-off" mode. The Russia-Ukraine crisis could escalate
into an international crisis in a hurry.

European stock markets were weaker Thursday, following their
recent rallies. The Ukraine crisis prompted some selling
interest heading into the weekend. However, selling pressure
in European equities was limited by perceived dovish
monetary policy comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair
Janet Yellen on Wednesday afternoon. U.S. stock indexes were
slightly weaker in early electronic trading Thursday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report and the Philadelphia Fed
business survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.5 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are on the front burner of the market place heading
into a three-day holiday weekend.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in
early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from three days
of upside price action this week. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s
high of 1,857.00 and then at 1,867.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 1,840.50 and
then at 1,830.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
on more short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a
nine-week low on Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s high of
3,525.00 and then at 3,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,479.00 and then at 3,465.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading
today. Still, bulls are having a good week. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance Wednesday’s high of
16,360 and then at 16,400. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Thursday’s low of 16,255 and then
at 16,200. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today on
mild profit taking after prices hit a contract high Tuesday.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135
4/32 and then at the contract high of 135 10/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 134 16/32 and then at this week’s
low of 134 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 124.17.5 and then at 124.24.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at this week’s low of 124.09.5 and then at 124.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The
bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.870 and then at
80.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of
79.620 and then at 79.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading and seeing a pause after hitting a contract high on
Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $104.28 and
then at the contract high of $104.99. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $103.50 and then at $103.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. Soybeans hit
another contract high overnight. Traders will closely
scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales data.
Weather in the central U.S. has been cold and wet recently
as U.S. corn planters wait to roll. The cold U.S. weather
and the heightened Russia-Ukraine tensions are bullish for
corn and wheat. Soybeans are seeing tight U.S. stocks and
good worldwide demand. Technically, wheat bulls have the
slight technical edge. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm
near-term technical advantage.
 

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