Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 21

April 21, 2014 01:32 AM
 

Monday, April 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Many European and Asian markets are closed Monday due to the
Easter holiday, which made for subdued trading and a lack of
fresh news coming from Europe and Asia.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has de-escalated for the moment.
Reports said the U.S. and Russia have agreed to work to tamp
down this geopolitical flashpoint. U.S. Vice President Joe
Biden is heading to Kiev early this week for talks with
Ukrainian officials.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the
Chicago Fed national activity index and leading economic
indicators.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are now at least temporarily on the back burner the
market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in
early U.S. trading. Bulls have regained some upside
technical momentum recently. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last
week’s high of 1,863.75 and then at 1,867.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,850.00 and then at
1,840.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s
high of 3,543.00 and then at 3,550.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 3,525.00 and then at 3,500.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading today. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance 16,400 and then at 16,450. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of
16,305 and then at 16,250. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today on
more profit taking after prices hit a contract high last
week. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134
3/32 and then at 134 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
last week’s low of 133 19/32 and then at 133 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.28.0 and
then at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s
low of 123.20.0 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.000 and then at
80.150. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
79.865 and then at 79.750. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading, on mild profit taking after prices hit a contract
high last week. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$104.63 and then at the contract high of $104.99. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $103.50 and then
at $103.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading, on profit taking
and on expected good corn planting progress made in the U.S.
Corn Belt this past weekend. Traders will scrutinize this
morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.
Technically, wheat bulls have the slight technical edge.
Corn and soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical
advantage.
 

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