Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 22

April 22, 2014 01:22 AM
 

Tuesday, April 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Asian and European stock markets were
quieter and traded mixed to mostly firmer amid no major,
fresh fundamental news to move prices. U.S. stock indexes
were steady to firmer in early electronic trading Tuesday.

Reports Tuesday said China’s central bank has announced it
is reducing its reserve requirement ratio for its rural
commercial banks. This move is an easing of monetary policy
to try to stimulate the ag sector of the Chinese economy.
Major banks in urban areas of China were not included in the
move.

Traders and investors are awaiting key Chinese economic data
due out Wednesday: the HSBC April manufacturing PMI for
China. Recent China economic data has been mostly downbeat
by not meeting market expectations.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has de-escalated early this week.
While U.S. and Russia have agreed to work to tamp down this
potential geopolitical flashpoint, both sides are once again
trading barbs. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is presently in
Kiev for talks with Ukrainian officials. While tensions have
temporarily eased regarding this matter, it’s my bias the
situation will flare up again, and likely sooner rather than
later.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales
reports, the monthly house price index, existing home sales,
and the Richmond Fed business survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are now at least temporarily on the back burner the
market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early
U.S. trading. Bulls have regained some upside technical
momentum recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in 1,867.50 and then
at 1,880.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at Monday’s low of 1,856.50 and then at 1,850.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,575.00 and
then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 3,548.00 and then at 3,525.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S.
trading today. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance 16,400 and then at 16,450. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of
16,340 and then at 16,300. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 3/32 and then
at Monday’s high of 134 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
last week’s low of 133 19/32 and then at 133 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 123.28.5 and then at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at Monday’s low of 123.18.5 and then at 123.10.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading after
hitting a two-week high overnight. The bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 80.065 and then at 80.200. Shorter-term support is
seen at Monday’s low of 79.865 and then at 79.750. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading, on mild profit taking after prices hit a contract
high last week. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$104.65 and then at the contract high of $104.99. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $103.00 and then
at $102.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading, on short
covering and bargain hunting from Monday’s selling pressure.
Corn planting progress made in the U.S. Corn Belt this past
week did not meet expectations, and that’s a bit friendly
for corn. Some wet weather is also forecast for the Corn
Belt this week, which could further delay planting. The
weekly crop progress report showed the U.S. wheat crop
condition mostly unchanged from last week, but still not in
good shape. Technically, wheat bulls have the very slight
technical edge but need to show more power soon to keep it.
Corn and soybean bulls have the near-term technical
advantage.
 

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