Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 23

April 23, 2014 01:50 AM
 

Wednesday, April 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Key Chinese economic data out Wednesday saw the HSBC April
manufacturing PMI come in at 48.3 in March versus 48.0 in
April. A PMI reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the
sector. The market place has been concerned about a slowing
pace of China economic growth in recent months—even though
China’s economic numbers are the envy of all major
industrial countries.

Meantime, the European Union’s flash services PMI for April
was 52.5 versus 52.2 in March. The EU’s manufacturing PMI
was 53.3 in April versus 53.0 in March.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis had de-escalated early this week.
However, at mid-week tensions are rising again after Ukraine
accused pro-Russian separatists of torturing Ukraine
citizens and shooting at a Ukrainian jet. U.S. Vice
President Joe Biden was in Kiev Tuesday for talks with
Ukrainian officials. He warned the Russians to back off.
This situation is likely flare up again to a front-burner
matter in the market place, and likely sooner rather than
later.

Reports Wednesday said demand for physical gold from Chinese
consumers is picking up.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the flash
manufacturing PMI, new residential sales and the weekly DOE
energy stocks report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.5 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are still at least temporarily mostly on the back
burner the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in
early U.S. trading, on a mild corrective pullback from
recent good gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s
high of 1,878.75 and then at 1,880.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,860.75 and
then at 1,850.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
this week’s high of 3,590.00 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,565.00
and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,548.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading
today, on a mild corrective pullback. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance Tuesday’s high of
16,495 and then at the record high of 16,555. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at Tuesday’s low
of 16,395 and then at this week’s low of 16,340. Shorter-
term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 134 11/32 and then at
134 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133 30/32 and then at this week’s low of 133 14/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on short
covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s
high of 123.30.5 and then at 124.08.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 123.21.0 and then at
this week’s low of 123.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. The
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 80.005 and then at this week’s high of
80.065. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
79.770 and then at 79.620. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading
and hit a two-week low on more profit taking. Bulls are
quickly fading. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$101.99 and then at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $101.20 and then
at $101.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading. The corn market
bulls made a solid stand on Tuesday, to keep the near-term
price uptrend in place. Soybean bulls are fading a bit on
profit taking but still have the firm overall technical
advantage. Wheat trading is choppy but the bulls are shaky
on the charts. U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states weather is
the key fundamental factor for the grains at present.
 

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