Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 24

April 24, 2014 01:45 AM
 

Thursday, April 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

European stock markets were supported by upbeat earnings
reports coming from the U.S. late Wednesday, namely the
technology sector and Facebook and Apple. Asian stock
markets were mixed Thursday.

In other overnight news, European Central Bank President
Mario Draghi again hinted the ECB could ease monetary policy
to ward off deflationary price pressures. The annual
inflation rate for the EU is 0.5%, whereas the ECB is aiming
for an annual inflation rate of 2.0%.

In a sign the European Union is moving beyond its sovereign
debt crisis, a Spain government bonds auction of several
maturities fetched record low yields Thursday—ranging from
just over 1% to just over 3%. Also, a report Thursday said
the EU budget deficit fell below its target level for the
first time since the EU debt crisis began in 2008.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis had de-escalated earlier this
week. However tensions are rising again after Ukraine
accused pro-Russian separatists of torturing Ukraine
citizens and shooting at a Ukrainian jet. Russia has warned
that any Ukraine military action against pro-Russian
separatists would be akin to an attack on Russia. This
situation is likely to flare up again, and likely sooner
rather than later. Such would likely be bullish for safe-
haven assets including the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries and
gold.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report, the Kansas City Fed
manufacturing survey, and durable goods orders.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are lingering in the background and are not going
away.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading and hit a nearly three-week high. Prices are closing
in on the record high scored in early April. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the record high of 1,892.50 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of
1,867.50 and then at 1,860.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher early today
and hit a nearly three-week high overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 3,607.25 and then at 3,625.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 3,589.75 and then at
3,575.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
16,500 and then at the record high of 16,555. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 16,450 and
then at Wednesday’s low of 16,415. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on some
profit-taking pressure. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 134 13/32 and then at this week’s high of 134 30/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 134 even and then at this
week’s low of 133 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 123.29.0 and then at this week’s high of 124.03.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.23.5 and
then at this week’s low of 123.16.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.945 and then at this
week’s high of 80.065. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 79.810 and then at this week’s low of
79.770. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading
and seeing a corrective bounce following recent heavy
selling pressure. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of $102.08
and then at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at Wednesday’s low of $101.20 and then at
$101.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Traders
will closely examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export
sales report. The corn market sees selling interest limited
by planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt, due to cool, wet
weather. Soybean bulls are fading on profit taking but still
have the overall technical advantage. Wheat trading is
choppy and the bulls are shaky on the charts. A poor U.S.
winter wheat crop is keeping sellers somewhat at bay in the
wheat market.
 

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