Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 25

April 25, 2014 01:32 AM
 

Friday, April 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has escalated late this week. I
would not be surprised to see a keener "risk-off" trader and
investor mentality as Friday wears on and heading into the
weekend. Ukraine’s military has taken action against pro-
Russian separatists, killing several of them. In turn,
Russia has mobilized its troops near the Ukraine border.
President Obama said Friday he will consult with his
European allies on the matter. This situation is now a
geopolitical flashpoint in the eyes of the market place,
which will likely be bullish for safe-haven assets including
the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries and gold.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S.
flash services purchasing managers index (PMI), and the
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are high heading into the weekend.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading on profit taking from recent gains. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the overnight high of 1,873.75 and then at this week’s
high of 1,882.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 1,856.50 and then at 1,850.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today on some
profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,589.00 and
then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 3,546.00 and then at 3,525.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
16,400 and then at 16,431. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at this week’s low of 16,340 and
then at 16,300. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on some
safe-haven demand. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract
high of 135 10/32 and then at 135 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 134 18/32 and then at
134 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 124.06.5 and then at 124.10.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 123.29.5 and then at
123.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.880 and then at
80.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
79.760 and then at 79.650. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading.
Bulls are fading this week. In June Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $102.00 and
then at Thursday’s high of $102.35. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at this week’s low of $101.20 and
then at $101.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The corn market
sees support from planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt, due
to cool, wet weather. Soybean bulls have faded a bit this
week on profit taking but still have the overall technical
advantage. Wheat bulls have rebounded late this week to
reclaim the chart advantage. A poor U.S. winter wheat crop
is keeping sellers at bay in the wheat market.
 

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