Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 28

April 28, 2014 01:41 AM
 

Monday, April 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

This is a very busy week of U.S. economic data, highlighted
by the latest FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday
and Wednesday, the gross domestic product report on
Wednesday and the Labor Department’s jobs report on Friday.
Other key U.S. reports are scattered throughout the week. On
Thursday there is also important manufacturing data coming
out of China. Markets will likely be impacted by this week’s
heavy slate of economic data.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is still at the forefront of the
world market place to start the trading week. The situation
did not seriously escalate during the weekend but it did not
de-escalate, either, in the eyes of the market place. Pro-
Russian separatists took western hostages and paraded them
in front of the cameras during the weekend. Russia still has
troops near the Ukraine border. The U.S. and European Union
are set to slap new sanctions on Russia, beginning Monday.
This situation is still a potential geopolitical flashpoint
and will likely get worse before it gets better. Gold and
other safe-haven assets have and will likely continue to
benefit from the instability in Ukraine.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the
Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, pending home sales
and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are still high early this week.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 1,873.75
and then at last week’s high of 1,882.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at last week’s low of 1,853.00 and
then at 1,840.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,550.00 and then at 3,575.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,525.00
and then at last week’s low of 3,516.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
16,400 and then at 16,431. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 16,340 and then at 16,300.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on some
profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134 30/32 and then at 135 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 134 18/32 and then at 134 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 124.03.0 and then at last week’s high of 124.10.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 123.29.5 and
then at 123.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 79.800 and then at the overnight high of
79.810. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
79.615 and then at 79.600. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S.
trading, on short covering following recent selling
pressure. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $101.52 and
then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $101.00 and then at the overnight low of $100.49.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. The corn market
sees support from planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt, due
to cool, wet weather that is persisting. Soybean bulls have
the overall technical advantage. Wheat bulls have rebounded
to reclaim the chart advantage. A poor U.S. winter wheat
crop is keeping sellers at bay in the wheat market. Traders
will closely examine Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress
reports.
 

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