Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 4

April 4, 2014 01:31 AM
 

Friday, April 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Arguably the most important economic data point of the week
and of the month is on deck Friday: the March U.S.
employment report from the Labor Department. The key non-
farm payrolls number is expected to be up 200,000. Trading
in many markets could become volatile in the wake of that
report—especially if it’s a big miss from expectations. Just
ahead of the report many market watchers were thinking the
non-farm jobs number would be well above the 200,000 mark.
Thus, the highest market volatility after the report would
probably be if the jobs number was a big miss to the
downside.

There is no other U.S. major economic data due for release
Friday.

European and Asian markets were quiet overnight, ahead of
the U.S. jobs report.

As the major U.S. stock indexes are this week setting record
highs again in their very mature bull market runs, many
other asset classes, including the precious metals, have
seen their own fortunes dented. Trading and investing is
still ultimately a money game. When more money is flowing
into the stock market, that means there’s less money to flow
into other asset classes. The long-in-the-tooth bull market
in U.S. equities will come to an end at some point—and my
bias is that it will be sooner rather than later—and at that
point money flows will change. Such should favor the hard
assets—raw commodities included.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The U.S. jobs report could
cause some higher volatility in many markets Friday.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher and
hovering near Thursday’s record high in early U.S. trading
today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record
high of 1,887.50 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,876.25 and
then at Tuesday’s low of 1,862.25. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,650.00 and
then at this week’s high of 3,668.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 3,625.00 and then at Thursday’s low of
3,609.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and
hovering not far below the record high. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at the record high of
16,535 and then at 16,600. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Thursday’s low of 16,455 and then
at 16,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls have
faded badly this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at Thursday’s high of 132 12/32 and then at Wednesday’s high
of 132 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s
low of 131 26/32 and then at 131 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hovering near this week’s 10-week low. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Thursday’s high of 123.03.0 and then at 123.08.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 122.26.5 and
then at 122.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
trading and hit a five-week high on more short covering.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, the bulls have gained upside momentum late this
week, to suggest a market bottom is in place. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 80.695 and then at 80.800. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.590 and then
at 80.400. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading.
Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $101.13 and then at
$101.57. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $100.28 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading—soybeans firmer and
corn and wheat weaker. Some profit taking from recent gains
is featured in all the grains. In wheat, the bulls have
faded and need to show fresh power soon. Corn and soybean
bulls still have the firm technical advantage. Wet weather
in the U.S. Midwest only solidifies notions the corn crop
will get a late start on planting this spring.
 

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