Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 7

April 7, 2014 02:00 AM
 

Monday, April 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Asian and European stock markets were pressured Monday
following Friday’s losses in the U.S. stock market that were
led by the Nasdaq index dropping sharply. Friday’s U.S. jobs
data was just a bit weaker than expected, but still put
downside pressure on U.S. equities. The U.S. stock indexes
were under pressure again in overnight trading.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and
includes the employment trends index and consumer
installment credit. However, two Federal Reserve officials
are also scheduled to speak Monday: St. Louis Fed president
James Bullard and Chicago Fed president Charles Evans. Their
remarks will be closely scrutinized by traders and investors
for clues on the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (The world geopolitical
front remains quieter with no major issues on the front
burner of the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are lower and seeing
follow-through selling pressure from Friday’s strong losses.
A lower close on Monday would confirm a bearish "key
reversal" down on the daily bar chart, which would be one
technical clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9- and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,861.75 and then at 1,875.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,840.00 and
then at 1,834.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today and hit a
two-month low overnight. Bulls are fading badly. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,525.00 and
then at the overnight high of 3,535.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 3,500.00 and then at 3,475.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower and seeing follow-through
selling pressure from Friday’s strong losses. A lower close
on Monday would confirm a bearish "key reversal" down on the
daily bar chart, which would be one technical clue that a
market top is in place. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 16,350 and then at 16,400. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,250
and then at 16,200. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and
have regained some near-term momentum the past two sessions.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133 6/32 and then at 133 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 132 27/32 and then at
132 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today.
Bulls have regained some upside momentum. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.25.5 and then
at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 123.20.0 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading and
seeing a corrective pullback after hitting a five-week high
on Friday. Bulls still some upside momentum, to suggest a
market bottom is in place. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.595 and then at last week’s high of 80.770. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 80.430 and then at
Friday’s low of 80.240. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading.
Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $101.08 and then at
$101.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
Friday’s low of $100.28 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Focus is
turning more to U.S. corn planting. Also, Monday marks the
first national USDA ratings for the U.S. wheat crop. On
Wednesday is the USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Monday, traders will also scrutinize the weekly USDA export
inspections report. In wheat, the bulls have faded and need
to show fresh power soon. Corn and soybean bulls still have
the firm technical advantage.
 

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