Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 8

April 8, 2014 01:33 AM
 

Tuesday, April 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Russia-Ukraine matter is back on the front burner of the
market place Tuesday. Pro-Russian demonstrators in Ukraine
are becoming more active. This situation could flare up
quickly and once again become a geopolitical flash point.
Gold prices are posting good gains Tuesday, due in part to
some fresh safe-haven demand due to the increase in Russia-
Ukraine tensions.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Wednesday
afternoon’s release of the minutes of the latest meeting of
the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Data
from the Fed have become key inflection points for the
market place the past several months. Other than the monthly
employment report from the Labor Department, it seems other
U.S. economic data has become diminished in importance
during the past several months.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the IMF
world economic outlook forecasts, NFIB small business index,
and the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail
sales reports. Federal Reserve officials are again on tap to
speak Tuesday, which will garner the attention of the market
place.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are moving closer to the front burner of the market
place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. A bearish "key reversal" down on the daily bar
chart last Friday is a technical clue that a market top is
in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,843.50 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Monday’s low of 1,834.50 and then at the
March low of 1,823.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today
after hitting a two-month low Monday. Bears have downside
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 3,525.00 and then at
Monday’s high of 3,535.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Monday’s low of 3,473.00 and then at 3,450.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today. A
bearish "key reversal" down has occurred on the daily bar
chart, which is one technical clue that a market top is in
place. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 16,200 and then at 16,250. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 16,100 and then at
16,050. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and have
regained some near-term momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at Monday’s high of 133 23/32 and then at 134 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 8/32 and
then at 133 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Bulls have regained some upside momentum. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 124.00.0 and then
at 124.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 123.22.5 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading as the
bulls are quickly fading again. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.350 and then at 80.500. Shorter-term support is seen at
80.000 and then at 79.900. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading.
Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $101.44 and then at
$101.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $100.68 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and wheat were
weaker and soybeans steady. Focus is turning to U.S. corn
planting. On Wednesday is the USDA monthly supply and demand
report. In wheat, the bulls have faded and need to more
power soon. Corn and soybean bulls still have the firm
technical advantage heading into the critical U.S. planting
and growing season.
 

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