Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 9

April 9, 2014 01:43 AM
 

Wednesday, April 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Traders and investors are awaiting Wednesday afternoon’s
release of the minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal
Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). This report is
arguably the most important data point of the week for the
market place. Data from the Fed have become key inflection
points for the market place the past several months. FOMC
minutes in previous months have been markets-movers.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes
the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly
wholesale trade, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks
report.

The Russia-Ukraine matter is moving back toward the front
burner of the market place this week. Pro-Russian
demonstrators in Ukraine have become more active recently.
This situation could flare up quickly and once again become
a geopolitical flash point.

The slumping U.S. dollar index has been a feature in the
market place this week. If the greenback continues to sink
it would become a more significant bullish underlying factor
for the raw commodity.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine
tensions are moving closer to the front burner of the market
place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge
investor risk appetite in the world market place each day.
Each day I assess the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trader
mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1
to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10
being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in
early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,850.00 and
then at this week’s high of 1,861.75. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,840.00 and then at this week’s
low of 1,830.75. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,550.00 and
then at 3,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 3,528.00 and then at 3,500.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Tuesday’s high of 16,220 and then at 16,250. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 16,180 and
then at 16,150. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on some
profit taking from recent gains. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133 21/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 11/32 and
then at 133 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 124.00.0 and then at this week’s high of
124.03.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of
123.22.5 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
trading. The bulls have quickly faded this week. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.955 and then at 80.000. Shorter-
term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 79.800 and then at
79.600. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading
and hit a five-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and gained good upside
momentum Tuesday. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $103.00 and then at $103.50.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.00
and then at $101.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. Focus is on
Wednesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. That
report is expected to generally favor the bulls. In wheat,
the bulls have faded and need to more power soon. However,
there is still concern about a poor U.S. hard red winter
wheat crop, and that’s a bullish factor for all wheat
markets. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm technical
advantage heading into the critical U.S. planting and
growing season.
 

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