Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 12

August 12, 2013 02:08 AM
 

Monday, August 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

China’s stock market rallied Monday and hit a two-month high
after some recent upbeat economic news and notions the
Chinese government wants to inject fresh stimulus measures
into its economy. Meantime, Japan’s stock market dropped to
a seven-week low on some weak Japanese economic data
released Monday. In other overnight news, it was reported
that Greece’s economy contracted by 4.6%, year-on-year, in
the second quarter. Greece is in its sixth year of economic
recession. German officials said Monday they would not back
another European Union bailout package for Greece. Reports
overnight said gold-backed exchange traded funds saw decent
inflows last Friday. The latest Commitments of Traders
report from the CFTC shows the funds are starting to get
long gold futures again. U.S. economic data due for release
Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget
statement. A couple of U.S. Federal Reserve officials give
speeches this week, which will be closely scrutinized by the
market place, for the future direction of Fed monetary
policy.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker and hit a two-week low
early today on more profit taking. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,687.00 and then at Friday’s high of
1,696.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,675.40 and then at 1,670.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on more
profit taking. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 3,118.05 and then at
Friday’s high of 3,134.75. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 3,094.25 and then at last
week’s low of 3,090.75. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today on more profit
taking. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,375 and then at 15,400. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,300 and then at 15,250.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s
high of 134 20/32 and then at 135 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 134 6/32 and then at
134 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of
126.29.0 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 126.19.5 and then at 126.16.0 Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading, on short covering. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 81.500 and then at
81.750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
81.110 and then at last week’s low of 80.895. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today, on short
covering. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$106.40 and then at $107.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $105.00 and then at $104.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Grain traders are
anxiously awaiting the midday-Monday release of the monthly
USDA supply and demand report, at which time the government
will update its estimate of the size of the U.S. corn and
soybean crops this year. Most traders reckon the USDA data
will favor the bearish camp. However, it’s still my bias
that there is not strong downside price pressure left in
the grain markets, after their recent slides lower.
 

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