Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 13

August 13, 2013 02:00 AM
 

Tuesday, August 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is awaiting a slew of U.S. economic data
being released this week, starting out with retail sales on
Tuesday. Many believe this week’s U.S. data will show an
improving U.S. economy, one that is possibly strong enough
to begin to wean it from the Fed’s monthly bond-buying
program, also known as quantitative easing. In the European
Union industrial output rose by 0.7% from May to June.  In
the second quarter, output was up 1.1% from the first
quarter. The closely watched German ZEW economic
expectations index for August came in at 42.0 versus 36.3 in
July. The data hints the Euro zone economy is also on the
upswing. Recent news reports cite a significant increase in
demand for physical gold coming out of China. Demand for
gold from Chinese consumers hit a record of 385.5 metric
tons in the second quarter, according to a Chinese trade
group. The reports also said China is poised to take over
leadership from India as the world’s leading consumer of
gold. Consumer demand for physical gold from India is also
on the upswing, the reports said. Also, India has again
raised its import taxes on gold and silver in an effort to
curb its current-account deficit. U.S. economic data due for
release Tuesday includes the retail sales report, the NFIB
index of small business optimism, the weekly Goldman Sachs
and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, import and export
prices, manufacturing and trade inventories and sales.
Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart also speaks at a
Kiwanis meeting Tuesday.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,693.90 and then at the record high
of 1,705.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at the overnight low of 1,686.90 and then at Monday’s low of
1,675.40. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 3,137.50 and then at the recent high of
3,140.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,123.25 and then at 3,100.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 15,470 and then at 15,500.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
15,400 and then at 15,350. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 29/32 and then
at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 133 6/32 and then at 133 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.16.5 and then
at 126.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 126.03.5 and then at 126.00.0 Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.750 and then
at 82.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 81.435 and then at Monday’s low of 81.110. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. In September
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $107.20 and then at
$108.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $105.95 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. Grain traders are
still digesting the surprising results of Monday’s monthly
USDA supply and demand report. The government forecast the
size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops at lower levels
than a month ago. Most traders had reckoned the USDA would
slightly raise the size of the U.S. corn crop. Given
Monday’s upside price action in corn and soybeans, gains in
those markets today would suggest they have put in at least
near-term lows, if not major lows. Wheat will remain a
follower. Dry weather in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt is
also a bullish input for corn and soybeans.
 

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