Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 14

August 14, 2013 02:15 AM
 

Wednesday, August 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the European Union has emerged from its
six-quarter economic recession, EU data showed Wednesday.
The EU second-quarter GDP rose 0.3% from the first quarter.
However, the year-on-year figure was down 0.7%. The German
government auctioned its 10-year bond Wednesday and it
fetched a yield of 1.80%, which is the highest level in a
year and a half. That also suggests European investors have
better feelings about the recovery of the European Union
economy. Recent EU data has shown slight improvement,
overall. Traders are also awaiting more U.S. economic data
this week. Many believe the U.S. data will show an improving
U.S. economy, one that is possibly strong enough to begin to
wean it from the Fed’s monthly bond-buying program, also
known as quantitative easing. Many also look for the Federal
Reserve to announce it is "tapering" is bond buying at its
next FOMC meeting in September. The market place is keeping
a close eye on developments in Egypt. Anti-government
demonstrations in Cairo turned deadly Wednesday, with 10
civilians reportedly killed. U.S. economic data due for
release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, the producer price index, and the
weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,694.40 and then
at the record high of 1,705.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the this week’s low of 1,675.40 and then
at 1,670.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today and
hovering near Tuesday’s 12-year high. The bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Tuesday’s high of
3,148.00 and then at 3,160.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 3,131.25 and then at 3,115.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls
still have the near-term technical advantage. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 15,450 and
then at Tuesday’s high of 15,470. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at 15,350 and then at Tuesday’s
low of 15,310. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132
30/32 and then at 133 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Tuesday’s low of 132 12/32 and then at 132 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of
125.29.0 and then at 126.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 125.18.0 and then at 125.10.0 Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading, on more short covering. While the bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, the
greenback bulls are having a good week this week. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
82.000 and then at 82.250. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 81.745 and then at 81.500. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. In September
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $106.69 and then at this
week’s high of $107.20. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $105.92 and then
at $105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was slightly
higher and soybeans and wheat were weaker. Corn and soybean
market bulls have quickly faded after the surprising
bullish results of Monday’s monthly USDA supply and demand
report. Corn and wheat market bulls need to show fresh
power yet this week, to avoid a fresh leg down in prices in
the near term. Dry weather in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt
is a bullish input for soybeans and to a lesser degree
corn.
 

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