Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 15

August 15, 2013 01:47 AM
 

Thursday, August 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight activity, reports said around 525 people have
died the past two days in anti-government violence in Egypt.
Government troops have reportedly shot citizens protesting
in the streets. This news has helped to support crude oil
prices and the safe-haven gold market. Egypt controls the
Suez Canal, through which a good percentage of the world’s
oil traffic and other commerce flow. Asian and European
stocks were mixed Thursday in uneventful trading amid a lack
of market-moving economic data in those regions. There is a
big batch of U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
that could move the markets, highlighted by the consumer
price index. Other U.S. economic data due for release
Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real
earnings, the Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury
international capital data, industrial production and
capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and the
Philadelphia Fed business survey.  Also, St. Louis Fed
president James Bullard speaks at a breakfast meeting
Thursday morning. Traders and investors will be awaiting
reports of his comments.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today and hit a
fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,681.40 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1,692.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,670.00 and
then at 1,660.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today on profit
taking. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 3,114.75 and then at 3,125.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 3,100.00 and then at
this week’s low of 3,094.25. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today and hit a fresh
four-week low overnight. Bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage but are fading a bit. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 15,285 and then at
15,300. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 15,200 and then at 15,150. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and
hovering not far above the recent contract low. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 132 28/32 and then
at 133 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132 even and
then at the contract low of 131 25/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.28.0 and
then at 126.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 125.16.5 and then at 125.10.0 Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.745 and then at this
week’s high of 81.925. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 81.450 and then at this week’s low of
81.110. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. In September Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $107.87 and then at the July high of
$108.93. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $106.92 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The key "outside
markets" are in a bullish posture for the grains Thursday
morning, as the U.S. dollar index is lower and crude oil
prices are higher. Traders will closely scrutinize Thursday
morning’s USDA weekly export sales report. Recent export
demand for U.S. grains has been good. Dry weather in parts
of the U.S. Corn Belt is a bullish input for soybeans and
to a lesser degree corn. However, there are scattered rains
falling over the western Corn Belt Thursday morning.
 

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