Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 16

August 16, 2013 02:14 AM
 

Friday, August 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
 
In overnight developments, reports said hundreds of people
have died the past few days in anti-government violence in
Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood has called for mass protests
as government officials have established a state of
emergency in the country. Government troops have reportedly
shot citizens protesting in the streets. This news has
helped to support the safe-haven gold market and may have
helped put some downside pressure on the U.S. stock market
Thursday. The market place will continue to closely monitor
this situation. Egypt controls the Suez Canal, through which
a good percentage of the world’s oil traffic and other
commerce flow. In other news Friday, the European Union
recorded a monthly consumer price index reading of down 0.5%
in July versus June, but up 1.6% year-on-year. This data
suggests inflation is still not close to being problematic
in the EU, despite years of aggressive monetary policy
stimulus. U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes
preliminary productivity and costs, new residential
construction, and the University of Michigan consumer
sentiment survey. The U.S. stock index bulls have faded this
week and technically bearish weekly low closes on Friday
(today) would be an early clue the stock indexes have put in
at least near-term market tops.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today on a
corrective bounce after hitting a five-week low Thursday.
The bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,670.00 and then at
Thursday’s high of 1,681.40. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,653.90 and then
at 1,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today on a
corrective bounce after hitting a two-week low on Thursday.
The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but have faded a bit. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 3,100.00 and then at Thursday’s
high of 3,114.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 3,068.25 and then at 3,050.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on a mild
corrective bounce after hitting a five-week low Thursday.
Bulls have faded. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 15,167 and then
at 15,200. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Thursday’s low of 15,070 and then at 15,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and
seeing bearish follow-through pressure after hitting a
contract low on Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131 30/32 and then at 132 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 131 11/32 and then at
the contract low of 131 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and
hovering not far above the contract low. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.15.0 and then
at 125.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 125.03.0 and then at Thursday’s low of
124.26.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from solid losses
Thursday. The bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.345 and then at
81.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
81.155 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. In September
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at this week’s high of $107.87 and then at the
July high of $108.93. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $107.00 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading, on a corrective
pullback from gains seen Thursday. The solid gains in corn
Thursday suggest that market has put in a bottom, or is
very close to doing such. For soybeans, the strong gains
suggest prices can continue to trend sideways to higher in
the near term. Wheat will follow corn. Recent export demand
for U.S. grains has been good. Dry weather in parts of the
U.S. Corn Belt is becoming a more bullish input for
soybeans and to a lesser degree corn.
 

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