Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 19

August 19, 2013 02:10 AM
 

Monday, August 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The "dog days" of summer are upon the market place to start
the new trading week, as conditions are mostly calmer and
quieter. The exception is the sharp drop in the Indian Rupee
currency overnight. The Rupee has been on a sharp downslide
recently, which has the world market place paying attention
but yet overly concerned. There are a couple of key data
points later this week: the release of the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s FOMC minutes on Wednesday and China manufacturing
data on Thursday. Traders and investors are still watching
the Egypt unrest, which was violent over the weekend. An
escalation in violence is likely to impact the market place,
and could prompt a rise in demand for safe-haven assets,
including gold. Of importance to the entire market place is
the continued rise in government bond yields worldwide, with
the U.S. 10-year note fetching 2.87% and the German 10-year
bund yield at 1.91%. Both rates are the highest in well over
a year. The rising bond yields are an early clue that
problematic inflation could creep back into the major world
economies at some point down the road. There is no major
U.S. economic data due for release Monday.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today and did
hit a six-week low overnight. The bulls are fading. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 1,661.60 and then at
1,670.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,640.00 and then at 1,625.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today
after hitting a three-week low overnight. The bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Friday’s high of 3,090.00 and then at 3,100.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
3,060.25 and then at 3,050.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and hit a
six-week low overnight. Bulls have faded. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of
15,110 and then at 15,167. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 15,000 and then at 14,950.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and hit
another contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. There are no early technical
clues of a market bottom being close at hand. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131 3/32 and then
at 131 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
contract low of 130 14/32 and then at 130 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 3.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and
hit another contract low overnight. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
the overnight high of 125.00.5 and then at 125.08.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight contract low of
124.18.0 and then at 124.10.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.415 and then at
81.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
81.170 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early
today on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In October
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at Friday’s contract high of $107.95 and then at
$108.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$106.00 and then at $105.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, with soybeans
leading the way. As summer winds down a weather market has
developed in the grains—especially for soybeans. The
western U.S. Corn Belt has seen portions remain very dry
for weeks. The solid gains in corn last week suggested that
market has put in a bottom. For soybeans, the strong gains
suggest prices can continue to trend sideways to higher in
the near term. Wheat will follow corn. The Pro Farmer
Midwest Crop Tour kicks off Monday, and the grain markets
will watch daily results.
 

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