Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 20

August 20, 2013 02:03 AM
 

Tuesday, August 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

While the market place can still be characterized as
quieter, summertime trading conditions, the recent sharp
drops in the Indian Rupee and the Indonesian Rupiah
currencies is becoming an increasing concern to the market
place.  European stock markets were lower Tuesday, partly on
worries about an "Asian contagion" situation that has in the
past roiled markets worldwide. Rising interest rates in the
major world economies has put pressure on the periphery
currencies. The higher rates in the major economies have
started to reverse the flows of investor monies that had
been moving into the periphery country markets the past few
years. Key data points this week will be the Federal
Reserve’s FOMC minutes that are released Wednesday and some
Chinese economic data on Thursday. Traders will be looking
at the minutes for some clarity on the near future path of
U.S. monetary policy. There is a world central bankers
meeting in Wyoming at mid-week, but Fed Chairman Bernanke
will not even attend it and no major proclamations are
expected to come out of that event. Traders and investors
are still watching the Egypt unrest, which continues to see
violence between citizens and government militia. Any
escalation in violence is likely to impact the market place,
and could prompt a rise in demand for safe-haven assets,
including gold. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday
includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail
sales reports, and the Chicago Fed national activity index.-
-Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
hit another six-week low overnight. The bulls are fading.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 1,656.50 and then at
1,670.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,641.20 and then at 1,625.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today after
hitting a three-week low Monday. The bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,090.00 and
then at Monday’s high of 3,100.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at Monday’s low of 3,060.25 and then at 3,050.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today after
hitting a six-week low Monday. Bulls have faded. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s
high of 15,074 and then at 15,110. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at Monday’s low of 14,980 and
then at 14,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on
short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a
contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early technical clues of a
market bottom being close at hand. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 131 13/32 and then at 132
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
130 13/32 and then at the contract low of 130 5/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
the overnight high of 125.09.0 and then at 125.16.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 125.00.0 and then at the
overnight low of 124.21.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.38 and then at
81.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
80.980 and then at the August low of 80.895. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today on more
profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. In October Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$107.00 and then at the contract high of $107.95. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $105.51 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on corrective
pullbacks from recent gains. A weather market has developed
in the grains—especially for soybeans. The western U.S.
Corn Belt has seen portions remain very dry for weeks. The
solid gains in corn suggest that market has put in a
bottom. For soybeans, the strong gains suggest prices can
continue to trend sideways to higher in the near term.
Wheat will follow the corn market. The Pro Farmer Midwest
Crop Tour is in progress and the grain markets will watch
daily results.
 

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