Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 23

August 23, 2013 01:59 AM
 

Friday, August 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a quieter, late-summer-on-a-Friday trading affair in
the market place early today. There were no major world
developments or economic news overnight to significantly
move markets. The Asian currency and financial markets have
calmed a bit but remain strained. Other geopolitical affairs
are sitting on the back-burner at present. There is still
buzz in the market place about the timing of the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s winding down of its quantitative easing of
monetary policy. Many reckon the Fed will start to "taper"
early this fall, completely wind down its monthly bond
buying sometime in 2014 and then could start to tighten
monetary policy in 2015. The fact the market place is
presently so keenly focused on what the Fed may or may not
do in the coming months and rehashing recent Fed speak and
events has as much to do with late-summer doldrums in the
markets with not much else to discuss among traders and
investors, as it does with the importance of the U.S.
central bank’s actions on world markets. Look for market
place activity to pick up markedly after the U.S. Labor Day
holiday in about 10 days. History shows the months of
September and October can be turbulent times for the market
place. U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light
and includes new residential home sales.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
are still shaky after prices hit a seven-week low Thursday.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,658.30 and
then at 1,670.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at the overnight low of 1,650.70 and then at 1,640.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today
after hitting a four-week low Thursday. The bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 3,109.75 and then at 3,125.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 3,085.50 and then at
3,075.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early. Bulls have faded.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,000 and then at 15,050. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Thursday’s low of 14,890 and then
at this week’s low of 14,845. Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
There are no early technical clues of a market bottom being
close at hand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130
29/32 and then at 131 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
130 even and then at the contract low of 129 28/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and
matched Thursday’s contract low overnight. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.13.0 and then
at Thursday’s high of 124.18.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the contract low of 124.02.5 and then at 124.00.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading, on more short covering. While the bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls have
gained some upside momentum this week. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high
of 81.950 and then at 82.160. Shorter-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 81.490 and then at 81.250. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. In
October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $104.72 and then at
$105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $104.71 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on a corrective
bounce from selling pressure seen Thursday. The stronger
U.S. dollar index this week is a negative for the grain
markets. Beneficial rains fell in parts of the western U.S.
Corn Belt Thursday, which is also bearish. The Pro Farmer
Midwest Crop Tour winds up with its corn and soybean crop
estimates Friday afternoon. Soybean bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage, while corn market bears have
the chart edge and wheat bears are in full technical
control.
 

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