Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 26

August 26, 2013 02:07 AM
 

Monday, August 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The feature in the market place overnight was sharply higher
grain futures prices as the central U.S. bakes in a late-
summer heat wave that will bring the hottest weather of the
summer. Gold prices did hit a 2.5-month high above $1,400.00
an ounce in overnight trading. Last Friday’s weak U.S.
housing data threw some cold water on notions the U.S.
Federal Reserve will start to "taper" its monthly bond-
buying program, also known as quantitative easing, in
September. However, a poll of economists that was taken
after the Jackson Hole, Wyoming central bankers’ confab that
ended Saturday suggested the Fed will implement a change in
its monetary policy in September by backing off a bit on its
monthly bond buying. Otherwise, most other markets are
calmer to start the trading week, as the U.K. observes a
public holiday Monday and as the unofficial last week of
summer leads up to the U.S. Labor Day holiday next Monday.
Look for more generally quiet trading activity this week.
Next week will see traders back in full force as the summer
vacations are over and as major economic data is released,
capped off by the U.S. jobs report on Friday, September 6.
The U.S. Congress also returns from its summer recess in
mid-September and faces several important matters. U.S.
economic data due for release Monday includes the advance
report on durable goods and the Texas manufacturing outlook
survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are steady to weaker early today.
Bulls have regained some upside technical momentum following
Friday’s bullish weekly high close. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the overnight high of 1,666.90 and then at 1,675.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low
of 1,650.70 and then at 1,640.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and regained some upside momentum with last
Friday’s bullish weekly high close. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 3,132.75 and then at the August high of 3,148.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
3,118.50 and then at 3,100.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls
have faded recently. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 15,000 and then at 15,050. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 14,950
and then at Friday’s low of 14,915. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Not much new. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early technical clues of a
market bottom being close at hand. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at Friday’s high of 132 2/32 and then at 132 16/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131 21/32 and
then at 131 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early
today on tepid short covering as prices Friday hit a
contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Friday’s high of 125.01.5 and then at 125.09.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.25.5 and
then at 124.15.5 Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading, on short covering. The bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of
81.700 and then at 82.000. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 81.355 and then at Friday’s low of
81.245. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. In
October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $107.00 and then at the overnight high of
$107.37. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $106.34 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were sharply higher overnight, with corn and
soybeans leading the way. Scorching heat and no rain are in
the U.S. Corn Belt weather forecast for the next week. That
has the grain market bulls snorting on Monday morning as
another weather market is in play. Corn and soybean yield
potential will suffer over the next week. The technical
postures of corn and soybeans have turned more bullish
recently. Wheat remains the weak sister of the bunch, but
will be a follower if corn and soybeans continue to rally.
 

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