Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 27

August 27, 2013 01:47 AM
 

Tuesday, August 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a "risk-off" day in the world market place Tuesday, as
the U.S. appears poised to take military action against
Syria after the government regime used chemical weapons
against its citizens. Gold prices hit a fresh three-month
high above $1,410 Tuesday, on safe-haven demand. Asian and
European stock markets sold off and U.S. stock indexes are
under pressure before the open Tuesday morning. There are
worries any U.S. intervention in Syria could escalate into
further instability in the already volatile Middle East.
Emerging country financial markets and currencies are again
seeing strains amid the risk aversion in the market place.
The Indian rupee hit another record low versus the U.S.
dollar. In European Union news Tuesday, the German Ifo
business confidence index rose for the fourth month in a row
and to its highest level in over a year, to 107.5 in August
from 106.2 in July. This is yet another signal that the EU’s
biggest economy is helping to pull the Euro zone out of
economic recession. U.S. economic data due for release
Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson
Redbook retail sales reports, the Chicago Fed Midwest
manufacturing index, the consumer confidence index, the
Richmond Fed business activity survey, and the Case-Shiller
home price index.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,655.10 and then at Monday’s high of 1,667.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at last week’s low of
1,631.70 and then at 1,625.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today. The
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 3,100.00 and then at the overnight high of
3,124.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 3,092.25 and then at 3,075.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today. Bulls have faded
recently. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,900 and then at 14,931. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,800 and then at
14,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today, on
more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 132 24/32 and then at 133 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 132 even and then at the overnight
low of 131 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
more short covering. Bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
125.16.0 and then at 125.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 125.01.0 and then at Monday’s low of
124.25.5 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading, on more short covering. The bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last
Friday’s high of 81.700 and then at 82.000. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 81.305 and then at
last Friday’s low of 81.245. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher early
today and hovering near the recent contract high. The Middle
East unrest is boosting oil. Crude bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. In October Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the contract high of $107.95 and then at $108.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $107.00 and then
at $106.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Markets were slightly lower overnight, on corrective price
pullbacks from Monday’s sharp gains. Scorching heat and no
rain are in the U.S. Corn Belt weather forecast for the
next week. That is very bullish for soybeans and corn. A
major weather market is playing out in the grains. Corn and
soybean yields potential will decline over the next week.
The technical postures of corn and soybeans have turned
more bullish recently. Wheat remains overall technically
bearish, but will follow corn and soybeans if those markets
continue to rally.
 

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