Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 29

August 29, 2013 01:41 AM
 

Thursday, August 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is a bit less risk-averse Thursday. Notions
of an imminent U.S. military attack on Syria receded
overnight as President Obama said Wednesday he has not
decided on a response to the Syrian regime’s alleged use of
chemical weapons against civilians. Also, U.S. allies are
not in agreement on what to do on the matter. There were no
other major developments on the economic or geopolitical
front overnight. Traders and investors will focus on U.S.
economic data due for release Thursday that includes weekly
jobless claims and second-quarter gross domestic product.
The long U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend is approaching, so
trading volumes in many markets Thursday and Friday are
likely to dwindle. However, once U.S. traders come back to
work next Tuesday they will have a full plate of matters
upon which to ponder. There is an FOMC meeting in September,
at which time many believe the U.S. Fed will decided to
change its monetary policy. The important U.S. jobs report
is out on Friday, September 6. The U.S. congress returns
from its summer recess in mid-September and will immediately
have to deal with pressing budget matters. And, it’s likely
that President Obama early this fall will name a new Federal
Reserve chairman.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today on a
corrective bounce after hitting a seven-week low on
Wednesday. Bulls are fading. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s
high of 1,639.00 and then at 1,650.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,625.00 and
then at 1,615.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s
high of 3,084.75 and then at 3,100.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 3,064.00 and then at
this week’s low of 3,052.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have faded
recently. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 14,900 and then at 14,930. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 14,800
and then at this week’s low of 14,745. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at the overnight high of 132 24/32 and then at 133 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132 5/32 and
then at 132 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 125.13.5 and then at this week’s high of
125.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
125.01.0 and then at 124.24.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early
U.S. trading, on more short covering and some safe-haven
buying. Bulls have gained some fresh near-term technical
momentum the past couple days. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 82.000 and then at
82.250. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.500 and then at
the overnight low of 81.420. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today on a
corrective pullback after hitting a more than two-year high
on Wednesday. Crude bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. However, the bulls may have become
exhausted with the big push higher in prices on Wednesday,
given Wednesday’s low-range close. In October Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$110.00 and then at $111.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $108.60 and then
at $107.95. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were slightly lower overnight. The key "outside
markets" are bearish for the grains early today as the U.S.
dollar index is solidly higher and crude oil prices are
lower. There is still high heat and scant rain chances in
the U.S. Corn Belt weather forecast for the next several
days. That is still bullish for soybeans and corn. Wheat
remains overall technically bearish, but will follow corn
and soybeans if those markets continue to rally. How the
corn and soybean markets close on Friday (near their weekly
highs or near their weekly lows) will be a good clue on
price direction in those markets in the coming weeks.
Closes near the weekly highs would suggest more upside
price potential this fall. Closes near the weekly lows
could strongly suggest near-term market tops are already in
place.
 

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