Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 30

August 30, 2013 02:04 AM
 

Friday, August 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Notions of an imminent U.S. military attack on Syria have
receded significantly the past 48 hours, as U.S. allies are
backing away from supporting or participating in such an
endeavor. The U.S.’s staunchest ally, the U.K., saw its
parliament late Thursday vote down U.K. use of force against
the Syrian regime. Now, the U.S. must decide if it will go
it alone on a military operation against Syria and risk the
resulting consequences, or back off its threats and risk
another set of consequences for doing nothing. This has the
world market place a bit calmer than earlier this week,
which in turn has put downside price pressure on safe-haven
assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries. There was a fresh
batch of European Union economic data released overnight,
most of which was upbeat. The number of unemployed in the
Euro zone in July fell for the second month in a row.
However, the overall unemployment rate in the region was
still an all-time high of 12.1%. Meantime Euro zone consumer
inflation fell to 1.3% in August from 1.6% in July, on an
annual basis. Next week comes a slew of bond issuances from
European Union countries. Those auctions will be closely
scrutinized for investor demand. The long U.S. Labor Day
holiday weekend is approaching, so trading volumes in many
markets Friday are likely to be light. Friday is the last
trading day of the month, too. However, once U.S. traders
come back to work next Tuesday they will have a full plate
of matters upon which to ponder. There is an FOMC meeting in
September, at which time many believe the U.S. Fed will
decided to change its monetary policy. The important U.S.
jobs report is out on Friday, September 6. There is also a
Group of 20 nations meeting next week. The U.S. congress
returns from its summer recess in mid-September and will
immediately have to deal with pressing budget matters. And,
it’s likely that President Obama early this fall will name a
new Federal Reserve chairman. U.S. economic data due for
release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM
Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan
consumer sentiment survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today on a
corrective bounce after hitting a seven-week low on
Wednesday. Bulls are fading. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,644.80 and then at 1,650.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at this week’s low of
1,625.00 and then at 1,615.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Thursday’s high of 3,109.00 and then at 3,125.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,088.75
and then at 3,075.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls
have faded recently. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 14,895 and then
at 14,930. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 14,800 and then at this week’s low of 14,745.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133
1/32 and then at this week’s high of 133 16/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132 18/32 and
then at 132 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.16.0 and
then at this week’s high of 125.28.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 125.08.5 and then at
125.00.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading. Bulls have gained fresh near-term technical
momentum as prices hit a four-week high on Thursday. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Thursday’s high of 82.270 and then at 82.500. Shorter-term
support is seen at 81.750 and then at 81.500. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today on more
corrective downside pressure after hitting a more than two-
year high on Wednesday. Crude bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls may have
become exhausted with this week’s big push higher in prices.
In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $109.00 and then at $110.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $107.40 and then
at the overnight low of $106.75. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight. There are still hot temps and
little rain chances in the U.S. Corn Belt weather forecasts
for the next week. That is still bullish for soybeans and
corn. Wheat remains overall technically bearish, but will
follow corn and soybeans if those markets continue to
rally. How the corn and soybean markets close today (near
their weekly highs or near their weekly lows) will be a
good clue on price direction in those markets in the coming
weeks. Weekly closes near the middle of the weekly trading
ranges would be insignificant. Closes near the weekly highs
would suggest more upside price potential this fall. Closes
near the weekly lows could strongly suggest near-term
market tops are already in place.
 

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