Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 5

August 5, 2013 01:53 AM
 

Monday, August 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news the HSBC China services purchasing
managers index reading was steady in July versus June, at
51.3. A PMI above 50.0 suggests economic expansion. Later
this week China trade and industrial production data will be
released and will be closely scrutinized by the market
place. The Markit company Euro zone composite purchasing
managers index rose to 50.5 in July from 48.7 in June.
That’s the first reading above 50.0 since January of 2012.
The better PMI reading adds to a string of slightly
improving economic data coming out of the European Union.
Traders and investors have pretty much digested last
Friday’s U.S. employment report that showed slightly weaker
jobs growth than expectations, and added more uncertainty
regarding when the Federal Reserve could start to "taper"
its monthly bond-buying program, also known as quantitative
easing. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes
the employment trends index, the ISM non-manufacturing
report on business, and the global servicers PMI.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today after
poking to a fresh all-time record high on Friday. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Friday’s record high of 1,705.00 and then at 1,715.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low
of 1,696.20 and then at 1,685.40. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and poked to a 12-year high overnight. The bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 3,139.50 and then at 3,150.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 3,132.50 and then at
Friday’s low of 3,112.25. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild
profit taking after hitting a record high late last week.
Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Friday’s record high of 15,600 and then at 15,650. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,550
and then at 15,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as prices hover not far above Friday’s contract
low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133
28/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 133 16/32 and then at 133 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 126.20.5 and then at 126.26.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 126.13.0 and then at 126.08.0
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 82.120 and then at 82.250. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 81.810 and then at last week’s
low of 81.480. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today on some profit taking
from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, if prices continue to back off
this week a bearish double-top reversal pattern would form
on the daily bar chart. In September Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $106.50 and
then at $107.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $105.00 and then at $104.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading. The grain market
bears are still in firm near-term command. The U.S. Corn
Belt weather remains non-threatening for the corn and
soybean crops and that remains fully bearish. The next
major data points for the grain markets are likely to be
the monthly USDA supply and demand report and the Pro
Farmer Midwest crop tour.
 

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